Nolan Winter
Wisconsin · 2025–26 · 31 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
953:39 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 31
- Minutes per game
- 30:46
- Points per game
- 13.1
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 8.5 / 1.5
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 13.1 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Per 40 minutes | 17.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Season totals | 406 | 262 | 48 | 15 | 38 | 25 | 60 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 153–269 | 56.9% | 8.7 | 11.3 |
| 2P | 122–174 | 70.1% | 5.6 | 7.3 |
| 3P | 31–95 | 32.6% | 3.1 | 4.0 |
| FT | 69–93 | 74.2% | 3.0 | 3.9 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62.6% | 65.5% | 35.3% | 34.6% | 1.92 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Wisconsin · Power 4 · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $765K
- 80% range $480K to $1.35M
- Median share of team pool
- 20.9%
- team pool $3.60M, 80% range $2.60M to $4.95M
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $765K in all four
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $25K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 65.8%
- Sufficient evidence
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. House-settlement $20.5M cap (College Sports Commission, 2026-10-01) times a modelled utilisation of about 97 percent times a men's basketball share of about 18 percent (school statements and an industry study); Power 4 schools are at or near the cap nationally.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Wisconsin: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Wisconsin | $765Kspeculative | $480K to $1.35M | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +6.0 | +4.6 to +7.3 | Sufficient evidence | +3.0 | +3.0 | +6.8range +6.1 to +7.5 | 2,848 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Wisconsin | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | +4.1 | +2.7 to +5.5 | Sufficient evidence | +1.7 | +2.4 | +4.5range +3.9 to +5.3 | 2,612 | Season detail | |
| 2024 | Wisconsin | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -0.1 | -1.2 to +1.1 | Sufficient evidence | +0.7 | -0.8 | +1.1range +0.8 to +1.4 | 1,059 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 27:17 | 30:46 | 20:37–43:29 | |
| Points | 10.6 | 13.1 | 3.0–26.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 60.8% | 62.4% | 0.0%–116.7% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | High Point | L 82–83 | 20:37 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 57.1% |
| 2026-03-04 | Maryland | W 78–45 | 21:00 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-28 | Washington | W 90–73 | 32:23 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 65.0% |
| 2026-02-25 | Oregon | L 71–85 | 28:07 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-22 | Iowa | W 84–71 | 34:16 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 81.8% |
| 2026-02-17 | Ohio St. | L 69–86 | 33:53 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | Michigan St. | W 92–71 | 32:41 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-5 | 57.1% |
| 2026-02-10 | Illinois | W 92–90 | 36:43 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 25.0% |
| 2026-02-07 | Indiana | L 77–78 | 39:48 | 26 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9-13 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 80.8% |
| 2026-01-31 | Ohio St. | W 92–82 | 31:46 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 45.5% |
| 2026-01-28 | Minnesota | W 67–63 | 35:16 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 66.7% |
| 2026-01-25 | Southern California | L 71–73 | 38:18 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 46.2% |
| 2026-01-22 | Penn St. | W 98–71 | 23:29 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 60.0% |
| 2026-01-17 | Rutgers | W 96–87 | 32:10 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6-6 | 2-2 | 4-6 | 116.7% |
| 2026-01-13 | Minnesota | W 78–75 | 38:57 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6-12 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-10 | Michigan | W 91–88 | 36:01 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 112.5% |
| 2026-01-06 | UCLA | W 80–72 | 34:25 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 8-9 | 55.6% |
| 2026-01-03 | Purdue | L 73–89 | 36:46 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 7-10 | 78.6% |
| 2025-12-30 | Milwaukee | W 80–60 | 21:18 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 68.8% |
| 2025-12-22 | Central Mich. | W 88–61 | 26:09 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 72.2% |
| 2025-12-19 | Villanova | L 66–76 | 43:29 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9-12 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 91.7% |
| 2025-12-10 | Nebraska | L 60–90 | 28:39 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 55.6% |
| 2025-12-06 | Marquette | W 96–76 | 29:00 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 45.0% |
| 2025-12-03 | Northwestern | W 85–73 | 22:59 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 80.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | TCU | L 63–74 | 35:52 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-27 | Providence | W 104–83 | 25:23 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 77.8% |
| 2025-11-21 | BYU | L 70–98 | 30:45 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5-11 | 0-4 | 4-5 | 45.5% |
| 2025-11-17 | SIUE | W 94–69 | 25:00 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4-8 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-11 | Ball St. | W 86–55 | 21:07 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7-11 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 72.7% |
| 2025-11-07 | NIU | W 97–72 | 26:40 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 57.1% |
| 2025-11-03 · NCAA | Campbell | W 96–64 | 30:42 | 17 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 70.8% |