Louisville

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Louisville, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Ryan Conwell	74.3%	+4.1range +2.8 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	+6.6range +5.8 to +7.4Sufficient evidence	$540KspeculativeLoading	$350K to $830KLoading
Isaac McKneely	71.8%	+5.2range +3.7 to +6.4Sufficient evidence	+6.9range +6.1 to +7.6Sufficient evidence	$625KspeculativeLoading	$415K to $980KLoading
J'Vonne Hadley	66.3%	+3.5range +2.4 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	+5.6range +5.0 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	$415KspeculativeLoading	$255K to $615KLoading
Sananda Fru	55.5%	+4.2range +2.5 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.3 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$410KspeculativeLoading	$260K to $620KLoading
Adrian Wooley	54.4%	+4.3range +2.7 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.2 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$400KspeculativeLoading	$255K to $625KLoading
Mikel Brown Jr.	47.5%	+3.0range +1.6 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.2 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$280KspeculativeLoading	$145K to $435KLoading
Khani Rooths	36.4%	+3.2range +1.9 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$230KspeculativeLoading	$130K to $350KLoading
Kobe Rodgers	34.4%	+1.8range +0.4 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$160KspeculativeLoading	$58K to $265KLoading
Aly Khalifa	29.4%	+4.3range +3.3 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.3 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$235KspeculativeLoading	$150K to $365KLoading
Vangelis Zougris	17.1%	+1.3range +0.1 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +1.0 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$82KspeculativeLoading	$36K to $135KLoading
Kasean Pryor	11.0%	+0.4range -0.7 to +1.5Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence	$52KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $90KLoading
Cole Sherman	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Will Hanke	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Spencer Legg	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.55M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Ryan Conwell	74.3%	$540K	$350K to $830K	15.0%	$540K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Isaac McKneely	71.8%	$625K	$415K to $980K	16.9%	$625K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
J'Vonne Hadley	66.3%	$415K	$255K to $615K	12.0%	$415K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Sananda Fru	55.5%	$410K	$260K to $620K	11.5%	$410K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Adrian Wooley	54.4%	$400K	$255K to $625K	11.4%	$400K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Mikel Brown Jr.	47.5%	$280K	$145K to $435K	8.1%	$280K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Khani Rooths	36.4%	$230K	$130K to $350K	6.6%	$230K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Kobe Rodgers	34.4%	$160K	$58K to $265K	4.8%	$160K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Aly Khalifa	29.4%	$235K	$150K to $365K	6.5%	$235K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Vangelis Zougris	17.1%	$82K	$36K to $135K	2.4%	$82K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Kasean Pryor	11.0%	$52K	$24K to $90K	1.5%	$52K in all four	$25K	Limited evidence
Cole Sherman	0.7%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Will Hanke	0.6%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Spencer Legg	0.5%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.55M to $4.95M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Louisville (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$22,792,373
Men's basketball expenses	$14,854,067
Athletics department expenses	$154,819,604
Athletics department revenue	$155,903,308

Coverage and exclusions

33 of 34 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 34 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$22,792,373	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$14,854,067	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	5
3 or more days	27

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology