Merrimack

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Merrimack, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Ernest Shelton	91.3%	+0.1range -1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+6.8range +6.0 to +7.9Sufficient evidence	$25KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $83KLoading
Kevair Kennedy	90.9%	+1.7range +0.7 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+7.9range +7.1 to +8.6Sufficient evidence	$46KspeculativeLoading	$16K to $135KLoading
Tye Dorset	90.7%	+1.4range +0.6 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+7.7range +6.9 to +8.5Sufficient evidence	$43KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $120KLoading
Todd Brogna	71.9%	+1.3range +0.2 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.3 to +6.8Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $96KLoading
Andres Marrero	67.2%	+1.6range +0.0 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+5.8range +4.9 to +6.6Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $105KLoading
KC Ugwuakazi	44.9%	+3.6range +1.9 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +3.9 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$42KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $140KLoading
Dylan Veillette	18.2%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $23KLoading
Jaylen Stinson	9.6%	-0.9range -1.9 to +0.4Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.7Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Aliou Cisse	6.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Malik Edmead	5.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Brendan Johnson	2.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Brandon Legris	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $265K; 80% Range $97K to $700K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $230K to $275K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Ernest Shelton	91.3%	$25K	$4K to $83K	12.5%	$23K to $27K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kevair Kennedy	90.9%	$46K	$16K to $135K	18.4%	$40K to $49K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tye Dorset	90.7%	$43K	$13K to $120K	17.5%	$38K to $45K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Todd Brogna	71.9%	$32K	$9K to $96K	13.4%	$28K to $34K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Andres Marrero	67.2%	$33K	$9K to $105K	13.0%	$29K to $35K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
KC Ugwuakazi	44.9%	$42K	$13K to $140K	14.5%	$37K to $44K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dylan Veillette	18.2%	$7K	$2K to $23K	3.4%	$7K to $8K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaylen Stinson	9.6%	$4K	$1K to $12K	1.6%	$3K to $4K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aliou Cisse	6.9%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Malik Edmead	5.3%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Brendan Johnson	2.6%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Brandon Legris	0.5%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$265K	$97K to $700K	100%	$230K to $275K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Merrimack College (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,309,371	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,309,371
Athletics department expenses	$31,668,878
Athletics department revenue	$31,668,878

Coverage and exclusions

33 of 34 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 34 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,309,371	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,309,371	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	10
3 or more days	21

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology