Cal Baptist

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Cal Baptist, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Dominique Daniels Jr.	88.1%	+1.4range +0.4 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+7.0range +6.1 to +7.8Sufficient evidence	$51KspeculativeLoading	$16K to $155KLoading
Martel Williams	80.3%	+2.0range +0.9 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+6.8range +5.8 to +7.5Sufficient evidence	$58KspeculativeLoading	$20K to $170KLoading
Jayden Jackson	58.0%	+0.4range -0.7 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.6 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $77KLoading
Jonathan Griman	53.0%	+2.2range +0.7 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+4.5range +3.8 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	$42KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $130KLoading
Jordan Muller	50.1%	-1.2range -2.2 to -0.2Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $41KLoading
Bradey Henige	48.4%	+1.8range +0.5 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.4 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$34KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $105KLoading
Thomas Ndong	41.4%	+0.9range -0.1 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.6 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $68KLoading
Devon Malcolm	33.0%	+0.0range -0.5 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +2.0 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $40KLoading
Miles Daniels	16.8%	+0.2range -0.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $24KLoading
Rene D'Amelio	13.6%	+0.7range -0.2 to +1.6Limited evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.1Limited evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $24KLoading
Monty Bowser	7.7%	-0.3range -0.9 to +0.4Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $13KLoading
Nate Garcia	7.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Jalen Dollar	2.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $300K; 80% Range $110K to $820K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $295K to $305K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Dominique Daniels Jr.	88.1%	$51K	$16K to $155K	17.8%	$50K to $52K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Martel Williams	80.3%	$58K	$20K to $170K	18.6%	$58K to $59K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jayden Jackson	58.0%	$24K	$4K to $77K	9.7%	$23K to $24K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jonathan Griman	53.0%	$42K	$13K to $130K	13.2%	$41K to $42K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Muller	50.1%	$9K	$1K to $41K	4.1%	$9K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bradey Henige	48.4%	$34K	$11K to $105K	11.2%	$34K to $35K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Thomas Ndong	41.4%	$22K	$6K to $68K	7.9%	$22K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Devon Malcolm	33.0%	$12K	$3K to $40K	5.0%	$12K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Miles Daniels	16.8%	$8K	$2K to $24K	3.0%	$7K to $8K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Rene D'Amelio	13.6%	$8K	$3K to $24K	3.0%	$8K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Monty Bowser	7.7%	$4K	$1K to $13K	1.6%	$4K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nate Garcia	7.1%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jalen Dollar	2.5%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$300K	$110K to $820K	100%	$295K to $305K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, California Baptist University (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,593,847
Men's basketball expenses	$3,836,972
Athletics department expenses	$37,832,623
Athletics department revenue	$41,582,676

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 34 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 34 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$4,593,847	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,836,972	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	8
3 or more days	24

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology