Xavier

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Xavier, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Malik Messina-Moore	82.3%	+0.9range -0.1 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+5.3range +4.8 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	$380KspeculativeLoading	$125K to $750KLoading
Filip Borovicanin	78.1%	+3.2range +1.8 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	+6.0range +5.3 to +6.5Sufficient evidence	$760KspeculativeLoading	$360K to $1.80MLoading
Tre Carroll	76.7%	+1.1range +0.1 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.6 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$400KspeculativeLoading	$160K to $775KLoading
Jovan Milicevic	65.6%	+0.8range -0.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.8 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	$300KspeculativeLoading	$93K to $605KLoading
Roddie Anderson III	57.9%	-1.4range -2.5 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.7 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$97KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $315KLoading
All Wright	56.0%	+0.4range -1.2 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.0 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$235KspeculativeLoading	$39K to $545KLoading
Isaiah Walker	40.0%	-0.4range -1.9 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$120KspeculativeLoading	$21K to $295KLoading
Pape N'Diaye	20.4%	+0.8range -0.1 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.3 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$105KspeculativeLoading	$40K to $215KLoading
Anthony Robinson	19.3%	+0.6range -0.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.2 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$99KspeculativeLoading	$34K to $210KLoading
Mier Panoam	2.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$21Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$10K to $40KLoading
Ian Sabourin	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$21Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$10K to $40KLoading
Henry Thole	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$21Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$10K to $40KLoading
Michael Wolf	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$21Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$10K to $40KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $2.80M; 80% Range $1.55M to $4.80M
Tier: Big East and Gonzaga; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $2.65M to $3.10M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Malik Messina-Moore	82.3%	$380K	$125K to $750K	15.1%	$360K to $420K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Filip Borovicanin	78.1%	$760K	$360K to $1.80M	25.5%	$720K to $835K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Tre Carroll	76.7%	$400K	$160K to $775K	15.0%	$385K to $445K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Jovan Milicevic	65.6%	$300K	$93K to $605K	12.0%	$285K to $335K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Roddie Anderson III	57.9%	$97K	$14K to $315K	4.4%	$92K to $105K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
All Wright	56.0%	$235K	$39K to $545K	9.4%	$225K to $255K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Walker	40.0%	$120K	$21K to $295K	5.1%	$115K to $135K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Pape N'Diaye	20.4%	$105K	$40K to $215K	4.2%	$100K to $115K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Anthony Robinson	19.3%	$99K	$34K to $210K	3.9%	$94K to $110K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mier Panoam	2.7%	$21K	$10K to $40K	0.8%	$20K to $23K	$21K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Ian Sabourin	0.4%	$21K	$10K to $40K	0.8%	$20K to $23K	$21K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Henry Thole	0.3%	$21K	$10K to $40K	0.8%	$20K to $23K	$21K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Michael Wolf	0.3%	$21K	$10K to $40K	0.8%	$20K to $23K	$21K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$2.80M	$1.55M to $4.80M	100%	$2.65M to $3.10M	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Xavier University (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$16,016,940
Men's basketball expenses	$11,742,338
Athletics department expenses	$31,800,090
Athletics department revenue	$31,800,090

Coverage and exclusions

32 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$16,016,940	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$11,742,338	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	1
3 or more days	30

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology