VMI

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for VMI, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
TJ Johnson	91.2%	-2.7range -3.4 to -1.5Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.6 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $88KLoading
Tan Yildizoglu	78.7%	-3.9range -5.0 to -2.5Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.1 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $59KLoading
Linus Holmstrom	65.3%	-1.7range -2.7 to -0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$25KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $110KLoading
Mario Tatum, Jr.	64.9%	-2.5range -3.4 to -1.1Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $75KLoading
Cal Liston	55.9%	-4.6range -5.9 to -3.4Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.7 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $37KLoading
AJ Clark	49.0%	-1.8range -2.7 to -1.0Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $78KLoading
Kaden Stuckey	41.0%	-3.2range -4.4 to -2.0Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $37KLoading
Walker Andrews	24.7%	-1.0range -2.1 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $155KLoading
Jaylen Pazon	16.4%	-2.9range -3.9 to -1.9Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $18KLoading
Alexander Daushvili	8.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Mason Hagedorn	4.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Mason Lawson	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Branford Edmonds III	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $210K; 80% Range $78K to $575K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $195K to $235K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
TJ Johnson	91.2%	$21K	$1K to $88K	16.9%	$19K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tan Yildizoglu	78.7%	$12K	$1K to $59K	9.5%	$11K to $13K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Linus Holmstrom	65.3%	$25K	$2K to $110K	13.9%	$23K to $27K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mario Tatum, Jr.	64.9%	$17K	$1K to $75K	12.5%	$16K to $19K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cal Liston	55.9%	$8K	$1K to $37K	5.0%	$7K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
AJ Clark	49.0%	$17K	$1K to $78K	10.3%	$16K to $19K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kaden Stuckey	41.0%	$9K	$1K to $37K	6.3%	$8K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Walker Andrews	24.7%	$17K	$3K to $155K	7.0%	$16K to $19K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaylen Pazon	16.4%	$5K	$1K to $18K	3.3%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alexander Daushvili	8.4%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$1K to $2K	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Mason Hagedorn	4.0%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$1K to $2K	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Mason Lawson	0.4%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$1K to $2K	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Branford Edmonds III	0.3%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$1K to $2K	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$210K	$78K to $575K	100%	$195K to $235K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Virginia Military Institute (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,241,416	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,241,416
Athletics department expenses	$20,033,879
Athletics department revenue	$20,033,879

Coverage and exclusions

26 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (90%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,241,416	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,241,416	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	7
3 or more days	21

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology