Troy

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Troy, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Thomas Dowd	89.2%	+3.4range +2.6 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	+8.3range +7.5 to +8.9Sufficient evidence	$76KspeculativeLoading	$26K to $215KLoading
Cooper Campbell	84.2%	+2.3range +1.4 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+7.2range +6.6 to +7.9Sufficient evidence	$54KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $150KLoading
Victor Valdes	73.2%	+1.9range +0.7 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.4 to +6.7Sufficient evidence	$39KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $110KLoading
Cobi Campbell	66.2%	+1.0range -0.1 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.4 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $79KLoading
Theo Seng	61.2%	+1.7range +0.9 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.5 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $93KLoading
Kerrington Kiel	38.1%	+1.2range -0.1 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.6 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $51KLoading
Jerrell Bellamy	38.1%	+0.5range -0.8 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.4 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $41KLoading
Austin Cross	37.5%	-0.5range -2.0 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.0 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $32KLoading
Javen Colbert	4.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Corbin Green	2.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Evan Griffin	2.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Emmanuel Clarton	1.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Kameryn Mitchell	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Hikaru Awata	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $295K; 80% Range $105K to $775K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $240K to $320K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 6 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Thomas Dowd	89.2%	$76K	$26K to $215K	24.5%	$62K to $83K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cooper Campbell	84.2%	$54K	$18K to $150K	18.0%	$44K to $58K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Victor Valdes	73.2%	$39K	$13K to $110K	14.2%	$32K to $43K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cobi Campbell	66.2%	$26K	$6K to $79K	10.7%	$22K to $29K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Theo Seng	61.2%	$32K	$10K to $93K	11.7%	$27K to $35K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kerrington Kiel	38.1%	$16K	$4K to $51K	6.5%	$14K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jerrell Bellamy	38.1%	$13K	$3K to $41K	5.4%	$10K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Austin Cross	37.5%	$9K	$2K to $32K	3.8%	$7K to $10K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Javen Colbert	4.6%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Corbin Green	2.8%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Evan Griffin	2.5%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Emmanuel Clarton	1.3%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Kameryn Mitchell	0.5%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Hikaru Awata	0.5%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$295K	$105K to $775K	100%	$240K to $320K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Troy University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,498,161
Men's basketball expenses	$2,405,521
Athletics department expenses	$39,742,013
Athletics department revenue	$39,742,013

Coverage and exclusions

26 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (81%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

6 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$2,498,161	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,405,521	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	5
3 or more days	25

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	6

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology