Sam Houston St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Sam Houston St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Damon Nicholas Jr.	70.7%	+2.5range +1.2 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+6.4range +5.5 to +7.1Sufficient evidence	$45KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $140KLoading
Kashie Natt	68.9%	+3.4range +1.9 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	+6.7range +5.9 to +7.5Sufficient evidence	$58KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $175KLoading
Po'Boigh King	66.4%	-0.6range -1.8 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+4.5range +3.7 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $55KLoading
Veljko Ilic	63.4%	+3.4range +2.2 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	+6.2range +5.5 to +6.8Sufficient evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $155KLoading
Jacob Walker	62.8%	-0.3range -1.2 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.8 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $56KLoading
Jacobe Coleman	50.8%	-0.6range -1.8 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.8 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $42KLoading
Justin Begg	43.6%	+0.9range -0.6 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.9 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $58KLoading
Isaiah Manning	20.9%	+0.6range -0.4 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $27KLoading
Matt Dann	20.5%	+1.1range -0.2 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $31KLoading
CJ Beaumont	20.0%	-0.0range -1.2 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $23KLoading
Jaxson Ford	12.1%	-0.3range -1.0 to +0.5Limited evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.9Limited evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $15KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $265K; 80% Range $96K to $730K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $225K to $285K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 11

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Damon Nicholas Jr.	70.7%	$45K	$14K to $140K	16.7%	$39K to $49K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kashie Natt	68.9%	$58K	$18K to $175K	20.5%	$49K to $63K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Po'Boigh King	66.4%	$13K	$2K to $55K	7.0%	$11K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Veljko Ilic	63.4%	$55K	$17K to $155K	19.0%	$47K to $59K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jacob Walker	62.8%	$14K	$2K to $56K	7.5%	$12K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jacobe Coleman	50.8%	$10K	$2K to $42K	5.3%	$9K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Justin Begg	43.6%	$18K	$4K to $58K	7.8%	$15K to $19K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Manning	20.9%	$8K	$2K to $27K	3.8%	$7K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matt Dann	20.5%	$10K	$3K to $31K	4.2%	$8K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
CJ Beaumont	20.0%	$7K	$2K to $23K	3.2%	$6K to $7K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaxson Ford	12.1%	$5K	$1K to $15K	2.1%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$265K	$96K to $730K	100%	$225K to $285K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Sam Houston State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,127,419	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,127,419
Athletics department expenses	$31,955,712
Athletics department revenue	$31,968,068

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,127,419	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,127,419	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	6
3 or more days	24

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	6

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology