MS Valley St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for MS Valley St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Michael James	88.3%	-4.1range -5.2 to -2.8Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$0 to $35KLoading
Patrick Punch	69.2%	-5.3range -6.4 to -3.7Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.5 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$0 to $20KLoading
Daniel Mayfield	61.2%	-3.5range -4.8 to -2.1Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.7 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$0 to $30KLoading
X’Zaevion Barnett	60.8%	-4.6range -5.9 to -3.2Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$0 to $21KLoading
Mussa Mzein	44.6%	-3.6range -5.0 to -2.2Sufficient evidence	+0.7range +0.5 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$0 to $22KLoading
Lamont Sams	39.5%	-2.2range -3.1 to -1.2Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$0 to $32KLoading
Delkedric Holmes	30.4%	-4.4range -5.4 to -3.2Sufficient evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	$2KspeculativeLoading	$0 to $12KLoading
Xzayvion Childress	30.2%	-1.0range -2.0 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $66KLoading
Tyrone Iroghama	27.0%	-3.8range -5.0 to -2.5Sufficient evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	$2KspeculativeLoading	$0 to $13KLoading
Chance Sutton	26.3%	-5.1range -6.1 to -3.8Sufficient evidence	+0.3range +0.2 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	$2KspeculativeLoading	$0 to $9KLoading
Samuel Murray	11.6%	+0.2range -0.3 to +0.6Limited evidence	+0.3range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $160KLoading
Jonathan Pace	5.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $2KLoading
Antonio Sisk	3.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $2KLoading
George Ivory III	1.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $2KLoading
PJ McDonald	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $2KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $125K; 80% Range $44K to $330K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $120K to $135K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Michael James	88.3%	$4K	$0 to $35K	1.6%	$4K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Patrick Punch	69.2%	$3K	$0 to $20K	1.4%	$2K to $3K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Daniel Mayfield	61.2%	$3K	$0 to $30K	1.7%	$3K to $4K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
X’Zaevion Barnett	60.8%	$3K	$0 to $21K	1.4%	$3K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mussa Mzein	44.6%	$3K	$0 to $22K	1.4%	$3K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Lamont Sams	39.5%	$5K	$0 to $32K	8.8%	$5K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Delkedric Holmes	30.4%	$2K	$0 to $12K	1.1%	$2K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Xzayvion Childress	30.2%	$12K	$1K to $66K	10.1%	$12K to $13K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyrone Iroghama	27.0%	$2K	$0 to $13K	1.1%	$2K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chance Sutton	26.3%	$2K	$0 to $9K	1.1%	$2K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Samuel Murray	11.6%	$21K	$3K to $160K	12.6%	$20K to $23K	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jonathan Pace	5.4%	$1K	$0 to $2K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Antonio Sisk	3.9%	$1K	$0 to $2K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
George Ivory III	1.5%	$1K	$0 to $2K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
PJ McDonald	0.1%	$1K	$0 to $2K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$125K	$44K to $330K	100%	$120K to $135K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Mississippi Valley State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$993,877
Men's basketball expenses	$717,325
Athletics department expenses	$5,281,853
Athletics department revenue	$5,576,233

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$993,877	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$717,325	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	9
3 or more days	21

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology