Chance Sutton
Mississippi Val. · 2025–26 · 27 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
323:27 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 27
- Minutes per game
- 11:59
- Points per game
- 1.6
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 2.1 / 0.2
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 1.6 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Per 40 minutes | 5.4 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 5.7 |
| Season totals | 44 | 57 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 46 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 18–41 | 43.9%† | 1.5 | 5.1 |
| 2P | 18–41 | 43.9%† | 1.5 | 5.1 |
| 3P | 0–0 | — | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| FT | 8–16 | 50.0%† | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.9%† | 45.8%† | 0.0%† | 39.0%† | 0.26 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25); the field-goal floor applies to the derived rates above. Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
MS Valley St · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $2K
- 80% range $0 to $9K
- Median share of team pool
- 1.1%
- team pool $125K, 80% range $44K to $330K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $2K in all four
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $1K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 26.3%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
MS Valley St: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MS Valley St | $2Kspeculative | $0 to $9K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | -5.1 | -6.1 to -3.8 | Sufficient evidence | -2.3 | -2.8 | +0.3range +0.2 to +0.4 | 1,074 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 5:52 | 11:59 | 0:58–35:02 | |
| Points | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.0–10.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 36.7% | 45.9% | 0.0%–100.0% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Grambling | L 52–77 | 6:29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | — |
| 2026-03-05 | Jackson St. | L 77–85 | 3:39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2026-02-28 | Ark.-Pine Bluff | W 70–69 | 0:58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2026-02-23 | Grambling | L 62–83 | 10:39 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 33.3% |
| 2026-02-21 | Texas Southern | W 72–71 | 7:36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | — |
| 2026-02-19 | Prairie View | L 62–72 | 9:20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-16 | Alabama St. | L 55–92 | 15:41 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2026-01-31 | Ark.-Pine Bluff | L 70–78 | 19:13 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | Southern U. | L 69–80 | 4:11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2026-01-19 | Florida A&M | L 48–62 | 12:16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-17 | Bethune-Cookman | L 63–79 | 21:25 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-12 | Texas Southern | L 51–84 | 35:02 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 38.5% |
| 2026-01-10 | Prairie View | L 69–70 | 4:58 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | — |
| 2026-01-05 | Alabama A&M | L 51–71 | 8:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-03 | Alabama St. | L 69–89 | 10:43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2025-12-29 | Oklahoma | L 69–93 | 22:54 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 66.7% |
| 2025-12-22 | West Virginia | L 51–86 | 6:33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2025-12-19 | Florida St. | L 49–96 | 23:25 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 50.0% |
| 2025-12-16 | Tarleton St. | L 64–88 | 22:48 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-08 | Kansas St. | L 49–108 | 9:41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-25 | Texas A&M | L 84–120 | 7:17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025-11-22 | CSU Bakersfield | L 70–86 | 10:55 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-15 | Manhattan | L 73–80 | 11:13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | Utah Tech | L 75–81 | 6:52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2025-11-13 | Hawaii | L 56–88 | 13:42 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2025-11-07 | Murray St. | L 60–108 | 5:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2025-11-03 | UAB | L 55–106 | 11:27 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |