MA Lowell

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for MA Lowell, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Xavier Spencer	87.2%	-0.6range -1.9 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.7 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$28KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $100KLoading
Darrel Yepdo	80.4%	-1.7range -2.6 to -0.6Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.1 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $61KLoading
Angel Montas Jr.	65.8%	+0.5range -0.7 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.2 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$39KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $140KLoading
Austin Green	58.8%	+1.1range -0.3 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.1 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$51KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $190KLoading
Shawn Simmons II	54.0%	+0.1range -1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.6 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$28KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $99KLoading
JJ Massaquoi	39.7%	-3.5range -4.6 to -2.4Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.1 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $20KLoading
Victor Okojie	37.6%	-0.8range -2.1 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $47KLoading
Khalil Farmer	35.8%	-2.8range -3.9 to -1.7Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $22KLoading
Jared Frey	25.6%	-2.3range -3.5 to -0.9Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $19KLoading
Isaiah Walter	7.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Jerrell Roberson II	5.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Kris Johnson	1.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Keenan Bey	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $235K; 80% Range $88K to $630K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $230K to $240K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Xavier Spencer	87.2%	$28K	$2K to $100K	16.0%	$27K to $28K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Darrel Yepdo	80.4%	$12K	$1K to $61K	8.8%	$12K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Angel Montas Jr.	65.8%	$39K	$9K to $140K	16.1%	$38K to $40K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Austin Green	58.8%	$51K	$13K to $190K	18.7%	$50K to $52K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Shawn Simmons II	54.0%	$28K	$5K to $99K	12.4%	$28K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
JJ Massaquoi	39.7%	$4K	$1K to $20K	1.1%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Victor Okojie	37.6%	$12K	$1K to $47K	6.8%	$12K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Khalil Farmer	35.8%	$4K	$1K to $22K	1.2%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jared Frey	25.6%	$5K	$1K to $19K	2.4%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Walter	7.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jerrell Roberson II	5.6%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Kris Johnson	1.5%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Keenan Bey	0.8%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$235K	$88K to $630K	100%	$230K to $240K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Massachusetts-Lowell (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,343,038	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,343,038
Athletics department expenses	$24,927,009
Athletics department revenue	$25,150,715

Coverage and exclusions

27 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (90%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,343,038	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,343,038	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	6
3 or more days	23

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	7

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology