Kentucky

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Kentucky, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Otega Oweh	81.8%	+3.1range +1.7 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+7.0range +6.2 to +7.7Sufficient evidence	$545KspeculativeLoading	$320K to $830KLoading
Denzel Aberdeen	76.5%	+4.3range +3.1 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	+7.2range +6.5 to +7.9Sufficient evidence	$695KspeculativeLoading	$450K to $1.15MLoading
Collin Chandler	68.1%	+1.2range -0.1 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.3 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	$295KspeculativeLoading	$69K to $520KLoading
Malachi Moreno	56.9%	+4.5range +3.0 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	+5.5range +4.9 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	$530KspeculativeLoading	$340K to $850KLoading
Mouhamed Dioubate	45.7%	+4.4range +2.7 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.8 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	$420KspeculativeLoading	$250K to $725KLoading
Brandon Garrison	40.0%	-0.4range -1.8 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$110KspeculativeLoading	$22K to $240KLoading
Andrija Jelavic	35.2%	+0.6range -0.8 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$135KspeculativeLoading	$32K to $250KLoading
Kam Williams	30.4%	+4.7range +2.9 to +6.3Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.6 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$300KspeculativeLoading	$185K to $530KLoading
Jasper Johnson	28.7%	+0.9range -0.7 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.7 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$120KspeculativeLoading	$33K to $215KLoading
Trent Noah	19.6%	+2.9range +1.6 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.5 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$145KspeculativeLoading	$88K to $220KLoading
Jaland Lowe	11.8%	+2.5range +1.2 to +3.7Limited evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.1Limited evidence	$90KspeculativeLoading	$51K to $140KLoading
Jayden Quaintance	4.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $41KLoading
Walker Horn	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $41KLoading
Zach Tow	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $41KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.55M to $5.00M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Otega Oweh	81.8%	$545K	$320K to $830K	15.7%	$545K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Denzel Aberdeen	76.5%	$695K	$450K to $1.15M	18.7%	$695K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Collin Chandler	68.1%	$295K	$69K to $520K	8.9%	$295K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Malachi Moreno	56.9%	$530K	$340K to $850K	14.3%	$530K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Mouhamed Dioubate	45.7%	$420K	$250K to $725K	11.4%	$420K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Brandon Garrison	40.0%	$110K	$22K to $240K	3.2%	$110K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Andrija Jelavic	35.2%	$135K	$32K to $250K	4.0%	$135K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kam Williams	30.4%	$300K	$185K to $530K	8.1%	$300K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Jasper Johnson	28.7%	$120K	$33K to $215K	3.6%	$120K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trent Noah	19.6%	$145K	$88K to $220K	4.2%	$145K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Jaland Lowe	11.8%	$90K	$51K to $140K	2.6%	$90K in all four	$25K	Limited evidence
Jayden Quaintance	4.7%	$25K	$14K to $41K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Walker Horn	0.4%	$25K	$14K to $41K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Zach Tow	0.4%	$25K	$14K to $41K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.55M to $5.00M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Kentucky (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$21,370,744	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$21,370,744
Athletics department expenses	$186,609,679
Athletics department revenue	$186,609,679

Coverage and exclusions

36 of 36 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$21,370,744	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$21,370,744	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	1
3 or more days	32

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology