Gonzaga

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Gonzaga, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Graham Ike	66.2%	+5.3range +3.8 to +6.4Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +3.9 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$470KspeculativeLoading	$250K to $880KLoading
Emmanuel Innocenti	61.5%	+5.3range +3.8 to +7.0Sufficient evidence	+4.2range +3.7 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	$450KspeculativeLoading	$235K to $830KLoading
Mario Saint-Supery	58.0%	+4.5range +2.8 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.1 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$350KspeculativeLoading	$175K to $660KLoading
Tyon Grant-Foster	53.2%	+2.8range +1.3 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.4 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$230KspeculativeLoading	$92K to $465KLoading
Jalen Warley	51.7%	+4.4range +2.8 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.7 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$320KspeculativeLoading	$160K to $610KLoading
Adam Miller	49.8%	+3.4range +1.9 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.3 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$245KspeculativeLoading	$110K to $480KLoading
Braeden Smith	42.4%	+4.2range +3.0 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$260KspeculativeLoading	$125K to $480KLoading
Davis Fogle	33.8%	+4.3range +3.2 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.7 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$215KspeculativeLoading	$105K to $395KLoading
Braden Huff	33.3%	+5.2range +4.0 to +6.4Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.8 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$250KspeculativeLoading	$130K to $465KLoading
Steele Venters	28.9%	+3.3range +1.9 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$145KspeculativeLoading	$70K to $280KLoading
Ismaila Diagne	16.0%	+2.5range +1.4 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	$78KspeculativeLoading	$36K to $155KLoading
Noah Haaland	3.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$21Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$11K to $43KLoading
Joaquim ArauzMoore	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$21Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$11K to $43KLoading
Cade Orness	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$21Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$11K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.15M; 80% Range $1.75M to $5.55M
Tier: Big East and Gonzaga; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.05M to $3.25M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Graham Ike	66.2%	$470K	$250K to $880K	14.6%	$455K to $490K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Emmanuel Innocenti	61.5%	$450K	$235K to $830K	13.7%	$435K to $465K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Mario Saint-Supery	58.0%	$350K	$175K to $660K	11.4%	$340K to $365K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Tyon Grant-Foster	53.2%	$230K	$92K to $465K	8.0%	$220K to $240K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Jalen Warley	51.7%	$320K	$160K to $610K	10.2%	$310K to $335K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Adam Miller	49.8%	$245K	$110K to $480K	8.4%	$240K to $255K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Braeden Smith	42.4%	$260K	$125K to $480K	8.3%	$250K to $265K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Davis Fogle	33.8%	$215K	$105K to $395K	6.9%	$205K to $220K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Braden Huff	33.3%	$250K	$130K to $465K	7.6%	$240K to $255K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Steele Venters	28.9%	$145K	$70K to $280K	5.0%	$140K to $150K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Ismaila Diagne	16.0%	$78K	$36K to $155K	2.7%	$75K to $81K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Noah Haaland	3.1%	$21K	$11K to $43K	0.7%	$21K to $22K	$21K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Joaquim ArauzMoore	1.1%	$21K	$11K to $43K	0.7%	$21K to $22K	$21K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Cade Orness	1.1%	$21K	$11K to $43K	0.7%	$21K to $22K	$21K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.15M	$1.75M to $5.55M	100%	$3.05M to $3.25M	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Gonzaga University (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$19,510,548
Men's basketball expenses	$13,588,661
Athletics department expenses	$40,467,847
Athletics department revenue	$48,229,118

Coverage and exclusions

33 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$19,510,548	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$13,588,661	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
2 days	5
3 or more days	26

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology