Detroit

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Detroit, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Orlando Lovejoy	78.9%	+0.3range -0.7 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.5 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $75KLoading
TJ Nadeau	65.1%	+0.1range -1.0 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.5 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $60KLoading
Tyler Spratt	61.4%	+0.5range -0.5 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.6 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $65KLoading
Legend Geeter	59.1%	+0.5range -0.5 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.5 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $66KLoading
Ryan Kalambay	50.1%	+3.0range +1.6 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	+4.2range +3.7 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$45KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $160KLoading
Lance Stone	50.0%	-0.6range -1.8 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.6 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $41KLoading
London Maiden	39.0%	-0.4range -1.7 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $32KLoading
Nate Johnson	19.8%	-2.0range -3.2 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.8 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Jared Lary	18.4%	-2.7range -3.5 to -1.8Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $10KLoading
Keshawn Fisher	16.7%	-0.3range -1.5 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $16KLoading
Je'kel Cotton	15.1%	-0.9range -1.8 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Ayden Carter	15.1%	-0.8range -1.5 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $13KLoading
Xavier Istomin-Monroe	11.2%	-0.5range -1.4 to +0.4Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $11KLoading
Zak Abdalla	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $200K; 80% Range $72K to $525K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $180K to $265K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 1 floor only

The widest scenario range, $100K to $700K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Orlando Lovejoy	78.9%	$24K	$4K to $75K	14.5%	$22K to $32K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
TJ Nadeau	65.1%	$18K	$3K to $60K	11.5%	$17K to $25K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Spratt	61.4%	$21K	$5K to $65K	12.1%	$20K to $29K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Legend Geeter	59.1%	$22K	$5K to $66K	11.9%	$20K to $30K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ryan Kalambay	50.1%	$45K	$13K to $160K	20.1%	$40K to $60K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Lance Stone	50.0%	$11K	$1K to $41K	7.5%	$10K to $15K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
London Maiden	39.0%	$9K	$1K to $32K	6.0%	$8K to $12K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nate Johnson	19.8%	$3K	$1K to $12K	1.9%	$3K to $4K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jared Lary	18.4%	$3K	$1K to $10K	1.1%	$2K to $3K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Keshawn Fisher	16.7%	$5K	$1K to $16K	3.0%	$4K to $6K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Je'kel Cotton	15.1%	$3K	$1K to $12K	2.3%	$3K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ayden Carter	15.1%	$4K	$1K to $13K	2.4%	$3K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Xavier Istomin-Monroe	11.2%	$3K	$1K to $11K	2.1%	$3K to $5K	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zak Abdalla	0.2%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$200K	$72K to $525K	100%	$180K to $265K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Detroit Mercy (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,100,195
Men's basketball expenses	$3,090,652
Athletics department expenses	$14,112,173
Athletics department revenue	$14,894,727

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$3,100,195	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,090,652	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	4
3 or more days	24

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology