Dayton

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Dayton, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Javon Bennett	86.2%	+2.3range +1.3 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+8.0range +7.1 to +8.9Sufficient evidence	$135KspeculativeLoading	$53K to $325KLoading
Keonte Jones	76.6%	+1.9range +0.9 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+6.9range +6.2 to +7.6Sufficient evidence	$110KspeculativeLoading	$39K to $280KLoading
De'Shayne Montgomery	73.6%	+4.3range +2.5 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	+8.0range +7.0 to +8.8Sufficient evidence	$195KspeculativeLoading	$77K to $495KLoading
Amael L'Etang	57.0%	+2.7range +1.6 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	+5.5range +4.9 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	$105KspeculativeLoading	$41K to $270KLoading
Jordan Derkack	53.4%	+2.7range +1.2 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+5.2range +4.4 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$92KspeculativeLoading	$35K to $235KLoading
Bryce Heard	43.8%	+0.1range -1.3 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.7 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$34KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $110KLoading
Jaiun Simon	43.2%	+2.5range +0.8 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.5 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$73KspeculativeLoading	$25K to $190KLoading
Jacob Conner	40.3%	+1.0range -0.4 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.8 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$46KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $125KLoading
Malcolm Thomas	14.4%	-0.2range -1.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $42KLoading
Damon Friery	5.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $15KLoading
Sean Pouedet	4.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $15KLoading
Makai Grant	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $15KLoading
Evan Dickey	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $15KLoading
Will Maxwell	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $15KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $885K; 80% Range $385K to $2.00M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $820K to $1.10M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 5 floor only

The widest scenario range, $475K to $2.45M, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Javon Bennett	86.2%	$135K	$53K to $325K	16.2%	$125K to $170K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Keonte Jones	76.6%	$110K	$39K to $280K	13.5%	$100K to $135K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
De'Shayne Montgomery	73.6%	$195K	$77K to $495K	20.6%	$180K to $240K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Amael L'Etang	57.0%	$105K	$41K to $270K	12.0%	$98K to $130K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Derkack	53.4%	$92K	$35K to $235K	10.8%	$86K to $115K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bryce Heard	43.8%	$34K	$6K to $110K	4.7%	$32K to $42K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaiun Simon	43.2%	$73K	$25K to $190K	8.6%	$67K to $90K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jacob Conner	40.3%	$46K	$11K to $125K	6.1%	$42K to $57K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Malcolm Thomas	14.4%	$14K	$5K to $42K	1.9%	$13K to $18K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Damon Friery	5.7%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$6K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Sean Pouedet	4.9%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$6K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Makai Grant	0.3%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$6K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Evan Dickey	0.2%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$6K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Will Maxwell	0.2%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$6K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$885K	$385K to $2.00M	100%	$820K to $1.10M	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Dayton (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$19,110,406
Men's basketball expenses	$10,276,933
Athletics department expenses	$43,653,540
Athletics department revenue	$43,653,540

Coverage and exclusions

35 of 37 games passed lineup acceptance (95%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 37 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$19,110,406	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$10,276,933	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
3 or more days	33

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology