Buffalo

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Buffalo, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Ryan Sabol	90.5%	-0.3range -1.3 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+5.5range +4.8 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $115KLoading
Noah Batchelor	76.5%	+1.2range -0.1 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.6 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	$59KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $185KLoading
Angelo Brizzi	76.4%	-0.1range -1.1 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.1 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $110KLoading
Derrick Talton Jr	62.8%	+0.1range -1.1 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.5 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$29KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $94KLoading
Daniel Freitag	59.4%	+1.9range +0.9 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+4.5range +4.0 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	$61KspeculativeLoading	$20K to $195KLoading
Tim Oboh	55.1%	+0.9range -0.6 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.3 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$36KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $120KLoading
Ezra McKenna	38.2%	+0.4range -0.8 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $72KLoading
Mikhail Pocknett	24.3%	-1.0range -2.4 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.1 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $31KLoading
Kyle Jones	13.8%	-0.2range -1.2 to +0.8Limited evidence	+0.9range +0.7 to +1.0Limited evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $25KLoading
Matas Buteliauskas	2.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading
Omar Migues-Hibeljic	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading
Aleksa Vlajic	0.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $335K; 80% Range $125K to $925K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $315K to $345K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Ryan Sabol	90.5%	$33K	$3K to $115K	13.2%	$31K to $34K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Noah Batchelor	76.5%	$59K	$17K to $185K	16.9%	$56K to $61K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Angelo Brizzi	76.4%	$32K	$4K to $110K	12.4%	$31K to $33K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Derrick Talton Jr	62.8%	$29K	$5K to $94K	10.8%	$28K to $30K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Daniel Freitag	59.4%	$61K	$20K to $195K	16.6%	$58K to $63K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tim Oboh	55.1%	$36K	$8K to $120K	11.4%	$34K to $37K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ezra McKenna	38.2%	$22K	$5K to $72K	7.2%	$20K to $22K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mikhail Pocknett	24.3%	$9K	$2K to $31K	3.3%	$8K to $9K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kyle Jones	13.8%	$8K	$2K to $25K	2.8%	$7K to $8K	$3K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matas Buteliauskas	2.8%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Omar Migues-Hibeljic	0.1%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Aleksa Vlajic	0.0%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$335K	$125K to $925K	100%	$315K to $345K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University at Buffalo (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,263,532	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$4,263,532
Athletics department expenses	$49,986,844
Athletics department revenue	$49,986,844

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (93%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$4,263,532	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$4,263,532	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	1
3 or more days	28

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology