Matas Buteliauskas

Buffalo · 2025–26 · 6 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance

Logged performance

33:12 minutes logged Few gamesUnder 100 minutes

Games logged: 6
Minutes per game: 5:32
Points per game: 0.5
Rebounds / assists per game: 1.0 / 0.0

Box line on three bases
Basis	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF
Per game	0.5	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Per 40 minutes	3.6	7.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Season totals	3	6	0	0	0	0	0

Shooting with attempts
Shot	Made–att.	Pct	Att/G	Att/40
FG	1–4	25.0%†	0.7	4.8
2P	0–0	—	0.0	0.0
3P	1–4	25.0%†	0.7	4.8
FT	0–0	—	0.0	0.0

Derived rates (computed here from the box line, not published statistics)
eFG%	Estimated TS%	3PA / FGA	FTA / FGA	AST / TO
37.5%†	37.5%†	100.0%†	0.0%†	—

Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25); the field-goal floor applies to the derived rates above. Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions

Speculative compensation · 2025–26β

Buffalo · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.

Speculative best guess: $3K; 80% range $1K to $8K
Median share of team pool: 0.8%; team pool $335K, 80% range $125K to $925K
Across scenarios Z1 to Z4: $2K to $3K; the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
Floor part: $3K; shared by every player with possessions
Possession share: 2.8%; Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate

Point and 80% range on the team table's axis. Open circle: limited evidence or floor only.

Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Range driven by assumption, not data

Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.

Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.

Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks

Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.

Buffalo: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player

No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ

No model-implied value is published for this player: fewer than 300 on-court possessions in every season, or the team’s games were outside the lineup audit.

Seasons played, with no model-implied value published
Season	Team	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range	Split role	Value
2026	Not applicable	descriptive: not used in fit or gates	No model-implied value is published.

NIL methodology

Game log

Trend over the 6 listed games, oldest to newest. Horizontal position follows the date. Minutes and points start at zero; game eFG% scales to its own range. Each row has its own vertical scale, so compare the printed values, not the graphics. Faint line: five-game rolling mean.
Measure	Last five	Listed games	Range
Minutes	6:36	5:32	0:13–12:41
Points	0.6	0.5	0.0–3.0
Game eFG%	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%–150.0%

Game log, box line per game. eFG% is computed for the game from field goals and three-pointers; it is blank without a field-goal attempt.
Date	Opponent	Result	Min	Pts	Reb	FG	3P	FT	eFG
2026-03-12	Akron	L 70–73	6:53	0	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	—
2026-03-06	Toledo	L 78–99	12:41	3	3	1-1	1-1	0-0	150.0%
2026-02-28	Central Mich.	L 70–75	1:51	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	—
2026-02-11	Ball St.	W 63–53	1:12	0	1	0-1	0-1	0-0	0.0%
2026-02-07	South Alabama	L 69–81	10:22	0	1	0-2	0-2	0-0	0.0%
2025-11-29	Canisius	W 71–53	0:13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	—