Justus McNair
Valparaiso · 2025–26 · 31 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
558:57 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 31
- Minutes per game
- 18:02
- Points per game
- 7.9
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 1.8 / 1.1
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 7.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Per 40 minutes | 17.5 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.9 |
| Season totals | 244 | 55 | 33 | 18 | 3 | 28 | 40 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 82–189 | 43.4% | 6.1 | 13.5 |
| 2P | 62–126 | 49.2% | 4.1 | 9.0 |
| 3P | 20–63 | 31.7% | 2.0 | 4.5 |
| FT | 60–80 | 75.0% | 2.6 | 5.7 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.7% | 54.4% | 33.3% | 42.3% | 1.18 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Valparaiso · Mid and high major · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $16K
- 80% range $2K to $60K
- Median share of team pool
- 4.2%
- team pool $520K, 80% range $230K to $1.20M
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $15K to $19K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $3K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 43.5%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Valparaiso: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Valparaiso | $16Kspeculative | $2K to $60K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | -1.2 | -2.3 to +0.1 | Sufficient evidence | +0.8 | -2.1 | +2.5range +2.2 to +2.9 | 1,815 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Valparaiso | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | +0.9 | -0.4 to +2.2 | Sufficient evidence | +0.8 | +0.1 | +1.5range +1.2 to +1.7 | 1,056 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 19:24 | 18:02 | 3:15–38:26 | |
| Points | 8.0 | 7.9 | 0.0–21.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 44.8% | 43.3% | 0.0%–100.0% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Bradley | L 84–90 | 28:03 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 45.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | Indiana St. | W 63–62 | 13:12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 16.7% |
| 2026-02-28 | Evansville | L 79–80 | 17:56 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 62.5% |
| 2026-02-25 | Drake | W 74–71 | 14:59 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-21 | UIC | W 71–67 | 22:50 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | Bradley | W 79–72 | 16:31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-15 | Indiana St. | W 76–75 | 18:59 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 85.7% |
| 2026-02-12 | Illinois St. | L 64–86 | 20:12 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 40.0% |
| 2026-02-09 | Drake | W 81–76 | 23:22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 14.3% |
| 2026-02-06 | Evansville | W 70–63 | 38:26 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-03 | Bradley | L 65–72 | 29:09 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 61.5% |
| 2026-01-31 | Indiana St. | W 76–72 | 26:01 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | Belmont | L 77–78 | 21:17 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 38.9% |
| 2026-01-21 | Southern Ill. | W 69–63 | 17:57 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6-8 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-17 | UNI | W 54–44 | 21:48 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 60.0% |
| 2026-01-13 | Belmont | L 74–78 | 12:49 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-10 | Murray St. | L 79–92 | 21:13 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-07 | Illinois St. | W 77–71 | 12:37 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 33.3% |
| 2026-01-04 | UIC | W 66–59 | 16:41 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 9-12 | 75.0% |
| 2026-01-01 | Southern Ill. | L 70–75 | 20:38 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 25.0% |
| 2025-12-29 | UNI | L 48–58 | 15:30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 37.5% |
| 2025-12-21 | Murray St. | L 79–85 | 20:20 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 57.1% |
| 2025-12-16 | Northwestern | L 70–86 | 18:21 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 70.0% |
| 2025-12-13 | UNCW | L 70–73 | 15:46 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6-7 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 85.7% |
| 2025-12-02 | Marquette | L 72–75 | 5:45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-26 | Southern Ind. | L 56–64 | 3:15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-19 | Cleveland St. | W 90–75 | 24:56 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8-15 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 56.7% |
| 2025-11-16 | Bryant | W 68–50 | 3:31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2025-11-12 | Nicholls | W 68–63 | 8:15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-07 | Kentucky | L 59–107 | 17:11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-04 | Eastern Ill. | W 66–63 | 11:27 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 33.3% |