Justus McNair
Only corroborated player-season records; not complete career coverage.
Observed career performance
867:22 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 60
- Minutes per game
- 14:27
- Points per game
- 6.2
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 1.4 / 0.7
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 6.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Per 40 minutes | 17.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| Season totals | 369 | 87 | 39 | 31 | 9 | 40 | 58 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 124–297 | 41.8% | 5.0 | 13.7 |
| 2P | 87–179 | 48.6% | 3.0 | 8.3 |
| 3P | 37–118 | 31.4% | 2.0 | 5.4 |
| FT | 84–112 | 75.0% | 1.9 | 5.2 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | 53.3% | 39.7% | 37.7% | 0.97 |
Combined corroborated seasons only; not complete career coverage. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Linked seasons
| Season | Team | G | MPG | Pts | Reb | Ast | Pts/40 | 3P% | FT% | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Justus McNair | Valparaiso | 29 | 10:38 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 16.2 | 30.9% | 75.0% | 51.2% |
| 2026 Justus McNair | Valparaiso | 31 | 18:02 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 17.5 | 31.7% | 75.0% | 54.4% |
Career identity corroborated by repeated game, team and individual-statistic matches. Unlinked seasons are excluded.
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Valparaiso · Mid and high major · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $16K
- 80% range $2K to $60K
- Median share of team pool
- 4.2%
- team pool $520K, 80% range $230K to $1.20M
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $15K to $19K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $3K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 43.5%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Valparaiso: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Valparaiso | $16Kspeculative | $2K to $60K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | -1.2 | -2.3 to +0.1 | Sufficient evidence | +0.8 | -2.1 | +2.5range +2.2 to +2.9 | 1,815 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Valparaiso | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | +0.9 | -0.4 to +2.2 | Sufficient evidence | +0.8 | +0.1 | +1.5range +1.2 to +1.7 | 1,056 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology