Paul Otieno
Saint Louis · 2025–26 · 34 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
520:49 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 34
- Minutes per game
- 15:19
- Points per game
- 5.2
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 3.8 / 0.9
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 5.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Per 40 minutes | 13.6 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 5.1 |
| Season totals | 177 | 130 | 30 | 12 | 26 | 22 | 67 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 61–106 | 57.5% | 3.1 | 8.1 |
| 2P | 59–103 | 57.3% | 3.0 | 7.9 |
| 3P | 2–3 | 66.7%† | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| FT | 53–69 | 76.8% | 2.0 | 5.3 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58.5% | 64.9% | 2.8% | 65.1% | 1.36 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
St Louis · Mid and high major · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $35K
- 80% range $11K to $94K
- Median share of team pool
- 5.4%
- team pool $725K, 80% range $315K to $1.70M
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $32K to $43K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $5K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 38.0%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
St Louis: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | St Louis | $35Kspeculative | $11K to $94K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +2.1 | +0.6 to +3.5 | Sufficient evidence | +0.7 | +1.4 | +2.2range +1.8 to +2.6 | 1,805 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Quinnipiac | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | +2.6 | +1.4 to +3.6 | Sufficient evidence | +1.4 | +1.1 | +5.4range +4.7 to +6.2 | 2,208 | Season detail | |
| 2023 | Quinnipiac | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | +3.0 | +1.8 to +4.3 | Sufficient evidence | -0.4 | +3.4 | +4.2range +3.6 to +4.8 | 2,449 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 11:57 | 15:19 | 3:49–29:08 | |
| Points | 2.8 | 5.2 | 0.0–13.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 66.0% | 58.8% | 0.0%–100.0% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Michigan | L 72–95 | 10:47 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-19 | Georgia | W 102–77 | 10:47 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-14 | Dayton | L 69–70 | 6:15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2026-03-13 | George Washington | W 88–81 | 10:41 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-07 | George Mason | L 57–86 | 21:13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2026-03-04 | Loyola Chicago | W 79–65 | 23:06 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-28 | Duquesne | W 91–76 | 29:08 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 80.0% |
| 2026-02-24 | Dayton | L 62–77 | 11:32 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 33.3% |
| 2026-02-20 | VCU | W 88–75 | 16:40 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-17 | Rhode Island | L 76–81 | 13:12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | Loyola Chicago | W 86–59 | 15:02 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-07 | La Salle | W 82–58 | 10:32 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-03 | Davidson | W 91–82 | 12:56 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-30 | Dayton | W 102–71 | 11:11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | George Washington | W 79–76 | 14:06 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 33.3% |
| 2026-01-23 | St. Bonaventure | W 97–62 | 15:56 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-20 | Duquesne | W 81–77 | 10:29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-17 | Richmond | W 88–63 | 11:40 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 25.0% |
| 2026-01-14 | Fordham | W 78–56 | 15:17 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-10 | La Salle | W 84–72 | 13:30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 66.7% |
| 2026-01-07 | VCU | W 71–62 | 19:46 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 57.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | Saint Joseph's | W 102–79 | 19:19 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 80.0% |
| 2025-12-21 | New Hampshire | W 93–79 | 13:38 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2025-12-17 | Bethune-Cookman | W 112–53 | 19:06 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 83.3% |
| 2025-12-13 | San Francisco | W 85–75 | 3:49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2025-12-07 | Central Mich. | W 107–65 | 14:24 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 37.5% |
| 2025-12-02 | LMU (CA) | W 91–70 | 15:03 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 66.7% |
| 2025-11-28 | Stanford | L 77–78 | 13:33 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 25.0% |
| 2025-11-27 | Santa Clara | W 71–70 | 28:11 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 60.0% |
| 2025-11-21 | Purdue Fort Wayne | W 91–60 | 16:50 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 6-6 | 75.0% |
| 2025-11-15 | Grand Canyon | W 78–64 | 21:19 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 60.0% |
| 2025-11-10 | Lindenwood | W 109–66 | 17:33 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 25.0% |
| 2025-11-06 | Chicago St. | W 108–86 | 21:35 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-03 | Southeast Mo. St. | W 92–67 | 12:43 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 75.0% |