Paul Otieno

Only corroborated player-season records; not complete career coverage.

Observed career performance

1830:01 minutes logged

Games logged: 82
Minutes per game: 22:19
Points per game: 7.9
Rebounds / assists per game: 6.0 / 0.8

Box line on three bases
Basis	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF
Per game	7.9	6.0	0.8	0.5	1.2	0.9	2.1
Per 40 minutes	14.1	10.7	1.5	0.9	2.2	1.5	3.7
Season totals	645	488	67	42	99	70	170

Shooting with attempts
Shot	Made–att.	Pct	Att/G	Att/40
FG	247–423	58.4%	5.2	9.2
2P	238–402	59.2%	4.9	8.8
3P	9–21	42.9%†	0.3	0.5
FT	142–180	78.9%	2.2	3.9

Derived rates (computed here from the box line, not published statistics)
eFG%	Estimated TS%	3PA / FGA	FTA / FGA	AST / TO
59.5%	64.2%	5.0%	42.6%	0.96

Combined corroborated seasons only; not complete career coverage. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions

Linked seasons

Linked seasons, per-game and shooting rates. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the declared floor.
Season	Team	G	MPG	Pts	Reb	Ast	Pts/40	3P%	FT%	TS%
2023 Paul Otieno	Quinnipiac	29	23:56	7.0	6.9	0.6	11.8	—	69.8%	60.0%
2025 Paul Otieno	Quinnipiac	19	32:22	13.9	8.4	1.1	17.2	38.9%†	86.8%	67.4%
2026 Paul Otieno	Saint Louis	34	15:19	5.2	3.8	0.9	13.6	66.7%†	76.8%	64.9%

Career identity corroborated by repeated game, team and individual-statistic matches. Unlinked seasons are excluded.

Speculative compensation · 2025–26β

St Louis · Mid and high major · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.

Speculative best guess: $35K; 80% range $11K to $94K
Median share of team pool: 5.4%; team pool $725K, 80% range $315K to $1.70M
Across scenarios Z1 to Z4: $32K to $43K; the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
Floor part: $5K; shared by every player with possessions
Possession share: 38.0%; Sufficient evidence

Point and 80% range on the team table's axis. Open circle: limited evidence or floor only.

Range driven by assumption, not data

Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.

Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.

Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks

Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.

St Louis: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player

No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.

Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ

Net points per 100 possessions by season, newest first. The speculative compensation best guess for 2025–26 only sits right after the team, so it is the first figure after the season. Ordered by season, not by value or dollars. Compensation is a best guess of a share of the school’s own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Season	Team	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range	Split role	Net	Range	Evidence	Offense	Defense	Wins above replacement	On-court possessions	Sample and flags
2026	St Louis	$35Kspeculative	$11K to $94K	descriptive: not used in fit or gates	+2.1	+0.6 to +3.5	Sufficient evidence	+0.7	+1.4	+2.2range +1.8 to +2.6	1,805	Season detail
2025	Quinnipiac	None: no budget that season	—	evaluation: examined, post hoc	+2.6	+1.4 to +3.6	Sufficient evidence	+1.4	+1.1	+5.4range +4.7 to +6.2	2,208	Season detail
2023	Quinnipiac	None: no budget that season	—	evaluation: examined, post hoc	+3.0	+1.8 to +4.3	Sufficient evidence	-0.4	+3.4	+4.2range +3.6 to +4.8	2,449	Season detail

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology