Wofford

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Wofford, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Nils Machowski	91.8%	+1.8range +0.9 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+6.6range +5.9 to +7.2Sufficient evidence	$66KspeculativeLoading	$23K to $180KLoading
Cayden Vasko	83.4%	+2.0range +1.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.4 to +6.7Sufficient evidence	$63KspeculativeLoading	$22K to $180KLoading
Kahmare Holmes	79.7%	+1.4range +0.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+5.6range +5.0 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	$50KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $135KLoading
Chace Watley	68.0%	-0.9range -2.1 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.1 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $56KLoading
Brian Sumpter	55.6%	+0.7range -0.2 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.3 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $69KLoading
Rex Stirling	36.2%	-0.3range -0.9 to +0.5Limited evidence	+2.2range +2.0 to +2.4Limited evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $38KLoading
Luke Flynn	31.6%	-0.1range -0.6 to +0.5Limited evidence	+1.9range +1.8 to +2.1Limited evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $35KLoading
Jayden Tyler	27.7%	-0.7range -1.2 to -0.2Limited evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.8Limited evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $26KLoading
Brendan Rigsbee	24.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Callum Richard	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Grayson Collins	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Davis Miller	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $270K; 80% Range $98K to $710K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $245K to $285K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Nils Machowski	91.8%	$66K	$23K to $180K	23.5%	$59K to $69K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cayden Vasko	83.4%	$63K	$22K to $180K	22.1%	$57K to $66K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kahmare Holmes	79.7%	$50K	$17K to $135K	18.0%	$45K to $52K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chace Watley	68.0%	$13K	$2K to $56K	7.2%	$11K to $13K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brian Sumpter	55.6%	$24K	$7K to $69K	10.4%	$22K to $25K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Rex Stirling	36.2%	$11K	$2K to $38K	5.3%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Luke Flynn	31.6%	$11K	$2K to $35K	5.0%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jayden Tyler	27.7%	$7K	$1K to $26K	3.5%	$6K to $7K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brendan Rigsbee	24.0%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Callum Richard	1.0%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Davis Miller	0.5%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Grayson Collins	0.5%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$270K	$98K to $710K	100%	$245K to $285K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Wofford College (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,442,245	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,442,245
Athletics department expenses	$32,651,311
Athletics department revenue	$32,651,311

Coverage and exclusions

9 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (30%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

21 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,442,245	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,442,245	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	1
3 or more days	28

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology