Utah Valley

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Utah Valley, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Trevan Leonhardt	86.6%	+3.5range +2.2 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+8.3range +7.3 to +9.2Sufficient evidence	$49KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $140KLoading
Jackson Holcombe	76.0%	+4.2range +3.1 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	+7.7range +6.9 to +8.5Sufficient evidence	$53KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $150KLoading
Tyler Hendricks	62.8%	+2.4range +1.2 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.6 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	$27KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $78KLoading
Braden Housley	55.7%	+0.3range -0.9 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.2 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $38KLoading
Isaac Davis	47.4%	+2.5range +1.4 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.5 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $62KLoading
Noah Taitz	42.1%	+1.2range -0.1 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.7 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $39KLoading
Hayden Welling	40.9%	-1.6range -2.8 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.8 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $21KLoading
Sherman Weatherspoon IV	36.3%	-0.1range -1.2 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +2.0 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $25KLoading
Isaac Hawkins	34.4%	+2.6range +1.2 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $47KLoading
Tyler Weaver	10.2%	-0.4range -1.3 to +0.6Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.7Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $10KLoading
Tyler Medaris	4.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Joul Karram	1.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
AJ Riggs	1.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $225K; 80% Range $81K to $605K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $215K to $235K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Trevan Leonhardt	86.6%	$49K	$17K to $140K	21.1%	$48K to $52K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jackson Holcombe	76.0%	$53K	$18K to $150K	22.4%	$51K to $56K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Hendricks	62.8%	$27K	$9K to $78K	12.5%	$26K to $29K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Braden Housley	55.7%	$11K	$2K to $38K	6.5%	$11K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaac Davis	47.4%	$22K	$7K to $62K	9.9%	$21K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Noah Taitz	42.1%	$13K	$3K to $39K	6.8%	$12K to $13K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Hayden Welling	40.9%	$5K	$1K to $21K	2.4%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sherman Weatherspoon IV	36.3%	$7K	$1K to $25K	3.9%	$7K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaac Hawkins	34.4%	$17K	$5K to $47K	7.6%	$16K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Weaver	10.2%	$3K	$1K to $10K	1.6%	$3K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Medaris	4.5%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Joul Karram	1.6%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
AJ Riggs	1.5%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$225K	$81K to $605K	100%	$215K to $235K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Utah Valley University (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,332,401	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,332,401
Athletics department expenses	$19,556,182
Athletics department revenue	$19,556,182

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,332,401	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,332,401	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	6
3 or more days	22

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology