Utah St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Utah St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Mason Falslev	81.7%	+5.0range +4.0 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	+8.4range +7.5 to +9.3Sufficient evidence	$175KspeculativeLoading	$77K to $405KLoading
MJ Collins	77.2%	+5.6range +4.0 to +7.1Sufficient evidence	+8.3range +7.2 to +9.4Sufficient evidence	$185KspeculativeLoading	$79K to $450KLoading
Drake Allen	63.0%	+4.2range +2.9 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	+5.9range +5.2 to +6.6Sufficient evidence	$115KspeculativeLoading	$50K to $270KLoading
Adlan Elamin	50.6%	+2.5range +1.3 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.5 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$61KspeculativeLoading	$21K to $150KLoading
Karson Templin	48.0%	+3.3range +2.0 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.6 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$74KspeculativeLoading	$30K to $180KLoading
Kolby King	46.8%	+1.9range +0.6 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +2.9 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$50KspeculativeLoading	$16K to $125KLoading
Garry Clark	38.4%	+4.1range +2.8 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +3.0 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$70KspeculativeLoading	$30K to $165KLoading
Zach Keller	33.9%	+0.4range -0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.8 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $74KLoading
Elijah Perryman	33.4%	+1.6range +0.5 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +2.0 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	$36KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $92KLoading
Tucker Anderson	18.2%	+0.7range -0.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$19KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $50KLoading
Jordy Barnes	6.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$7Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $17KLoading
Luke Kearney	2.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$7Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $17KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $850K; 80% Range $385K to $1.90M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $800K to $895K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Mason Falslev	81.7%	$175K	$77K to $405K	19.7%	$165K to $185K	$7K	Sufficient evidence
MJ Collins	77.2%	$185K	$79K to $450K	20.7%	$175K to $195K	$7K	Sufficient evidence
Drake Allen	63.0%	$115K	$50K to $270K	13.6%	$110K to $120K	$7K	Sufficient evidence
Adlan Elamin	50.6%	$61K	$21K to $150K	8.0%	$57K to $64K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Karson Templin	48.0%	$74K	$30K to $180K	9.3%	$70K to $79K	$7K	Sufficient evidence
Kolby King	46.8%	$50K	$16K to $125K	6.6%	$46K to $52K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Garry Clark	38.4%	$70K	$30K to $165K	8.3%	$67K to $74K	$7K	Sufficient evidence
Zach Keller	33.9%	$24K	$6K to $74K	3.3%	$23K to $26K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Elijah Perryman	33.4%	$36K	$11K to $92K	4.7%	$33K to $38K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tucker Anderson	18.2%	$19K	$6K to $50K	2.5%	$18K to $20K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordy Barnes	6.1%	$7K	$3K to $17K	0.8%	$6K to $7K	$7K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Luke Kearney	2.5%	$7K	$3K to $17K	0.8%	$6K to $7K	$7K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$850K	$385K to $1.90M	100%	$800K to $895K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Utah State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$5,717,996	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$5,717,996
Athletics department expenses	$48,349,839
Athletics department revenue	$48,349,839

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 34 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 34 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$5,717,996	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$5,717,996	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	2
3 or more days	29

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology