Louisiana

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Louisiana, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Dorian Finister	75.5%	-1.1range -2.0 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.2 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$30KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $115KLoading
De'Vion Lavergne	75.5%	-0.4range -1.5 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.4 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$44KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $150KLoading
Jaxon Olvera	72.5%	-3.0range -4.2 to -1.8Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.2 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $54KLoading
Dariyus Woodson	47.3%	-1.9range -3.4 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.8 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $63KLoading
Milan Mejia	46.9%	-0.8range -2.1 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $91KLoading
Todd Jones Jr.	41.0%	+0.2range -0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.1 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$41KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $155KLoading
Karris Bilal	34.9%	-1.5range -2.7 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.5 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $50KLoading
Joshua Lewis	30.3%	-1.4range -2.4 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $38KLoading
Jeremiah Evans	27.0%	-0.5range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $66KLoading
Michael Collins	22.4%	-0.4range -1.7 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $55KLoading
Kyran Ratliff	20.4%	-1.2range -2.3 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $33KLoading
Jamyron Keller	4.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Michael Mouton	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Logan Myers	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Christian Landry	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $305K; 80% Range $110K to $795K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $280K to $315K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Dorian Finister	75.5%	$30K	$2K to $115K	13.6%	$28K to $32K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
De'Vion Lavergne	75.5%	$44K	$4K to $150K	15.8%	$41K to $46K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaxon Olvera	72.5%	$7K	$1K to $54K	1.7%	$6K to $7K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dariyus Woodson	47.3%	$13K	$1K to $63K	6.6%	$12K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Milan Mejia	46.9%	$23K	$2K to $91K	9.2%	$21K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Todd Jones Jr.	41.0%	$41K	$9K to $155K	11.3%	$38K to $42K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Karris Bilal	34.9%	$11K	$1K to $50K	5.6%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joshua Lewis	30.3%	$9K	$1K to $38K	4.7%	$8K to $10K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jeremiah Evans	27.0%	$16K	$2K to $66K	5.9%	$15K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Michael Collins	22.4%	$14K	$2K to $55K	5.1%	$13K to $15K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kyran Ratliff	20.4%	$8K	$1K to $33K	3.7%	$7K to $8K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jamyron Keller	4.7%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Michael Mouton	1.1%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Logan Myers	0.3%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian Landry	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$305K	$110K to $795K	100%	$280K to $315K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Louisiana at Lafayette (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,342,908	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,342,908
Athletics department expenses	$42,959,075
Athletics department revenue	$42,959,075

Coverage and exclusions

30 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,342,908	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,342,908	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	4
3 or more days	27

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology