UCF

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for UCF, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Themus Fulks	82.0%	+2.1range +1.0 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+6.2range +5.5 to +6.9Sufficient evidence	$590KspeculativeLoading	$335K to $955KLoading
Jordan Burks	69.6%	-0.2range -0.9 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.8 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	$250KspeculativeLoading	$36K to $470KLoading
Riley Kugel	67.4%	+1.9range +0.6 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.4 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$450KspeculativeLoading	$215K to $745KLoading
Jamichael Stillwell	66.4%	+3.8range +2.6 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	+5.8range +5.1 to +6.3Sufficient evidence	$735KspeculativeLoading	$450K to $1.40MLoading
John Bol	47.0%	+2.9range +1.6 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.4 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$440KspeculativeLoading	$270K to $755KLoading
Devan Cambridge	43.2%	+1.3range +0.1 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.7 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$260KspeculativeLoading	$95K to $425KLoading
Chris Johnson	36.8%	+1.6range +0.4 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.4 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$235KspeculativeLoading	$105K to $385KLoading
Carmelo Pacheco	36.3%	+0.9range -0.1 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.2 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$195KspeculativeLoading	$67K to $315KLoading
Jeremy Foumena	20.0%	+0.6range -0.3 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.2 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$105KspeculativeLoading	$38K to $175KLoading
George Beale Jr.	14.9%	-0.2range -1.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$70KspeculativeLoading	$23K to $125KLoading
Kris Parker	9.7%	-0.7range -1.5 to +0.1Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$47KspeculativeLoading	$20K to $85KLoading
Elijah Hulsewe	5.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $41KLoading
Zachary Johnson	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $41KLoading
Poohpha Warakulnukroh	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $41KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.55M to $5.00M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Themus Fulks	82.0%	$590K	$335K to $955K	16.5%	$590K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Jordan Burks	69.6%	$250K	$36K to $470K	7.5%	$250K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Riley Kugel	67.4%	$450K	$215K to $745K	12.9%	$450K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Jamichael Stillwell	66.4%	$735K	$450K to $1.40M	19.5%	$735K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
John Bol	47.0%	$440K	$270K to $755K	11.8%	$440K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Devan Cambridge	43.2%	$260K	$95K to $425K	7.6%	$260K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Chris Johnson	36.8%	$235K	$105K to $385K	6.9%	$235K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Carmelo Pacheco	36.3%	$195K	$67K to $315K	5.9%	$195K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Jeremy Foumena	20.0%	$105K	$38K to $175K	3.2%	$105K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
George Beale Jr.	14.9%	$70K	$23K to $125K	2.1%	$70K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Kris Parker	9.7%	$47K	$20K to $85K	1.4%	$47K in all four	$25K	Limited evidence
Elijah Hulsewe	5.5%	$25K	$14K to $41K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Zachary Johnson	0.8%	$25K	$14K to $41K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Poohpha Warakulnukroh	0.3%	$25K	$14K to $41K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.55M to $5.00M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Central Florida (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$7,812,023	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$7,812,023
Athletics department expenses	$103,615,446
Athletics department revenue	$108,885,086

Coverage and exclusions

30 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$7,812,023	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$7,812,023	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
3 or more days	30

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology