Texas

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Texas, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Dailyn Swain	81.4%	+3.6range +2.6 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+6.6range +6.0 to +7.1Sufficient evidence	$715KspeculativeLoading	$475K to $1.15MLoading
Jordan Pope	72.1%	+2.6range +1.4 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	+5.5range +4.9 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	$500KspeculativeLoading	$290K to $760KLoading
Tramon Mark	70.9%	+1.6range +0.4 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.5 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	$385KspeculativeLoading	$150K to $605KLoading
Matas Vokietaitis	66.5%	+4.1range +2.3 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	+5.6range +5.0 to +6.3Sufficient evidence	$650KspeculativeLoading	$420K to $1.10MLoading
Camden Heide	56.3%	+1.4range -0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.4 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$290KspeculativeLoading	$88K to $475KLoading
Chendall Weaver	50.6%	+1.6range -0.0 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.1 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$285KspeculativeLoading	$98K to $475KLoading
Simeon Wilcher	46.9%	+2.9range +1.6 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.3 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$365KspeculativeLoading	$220K to $590KLoading
Nic Codie	25.1%	-0.7range -1.7 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$80KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $170KLoading
Lassina Traore	23.6%	+0.0range -1.0 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$94KspeculativeLoading	$28K to $175KLoading
Declan Duru Jr.	4.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Anthon McDermott	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Cole Bott	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Brandon Taylor	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.90M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Dailyn Swain	81.4%	$715K	$475K to $1.15M	19.4%	$715K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jordan Pope	72.1%	$500K	$290K to $760K	14.3%	$500K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Tramon Mark	70.9%	$385K	$150K to $605K	11.5%	$385K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Matas Vokietaitis	66.5%	$650K	$420K to $1.10M	17.6%	$650K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Camden Heide	56.3%	$290K	$88K to $475K	8.7%	$290K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Chendall Weaver	50.6%	$285K	$98K to $475K	8.5%	$285K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Simeon Wilcher	46.9%	$365K	$220K to $590K	10.0%	$365K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Nic Codie	25.1%	$80K	$24K to $170K	2.4%	$80K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Lassina Traore	23.6%	$94K	$28K to $175K	2.8%	$94K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Declan Duru Jr.	4.8%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Anthon McDermott	1.1%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Cole Bott	0.4%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Brandon Taylor	0.2%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.60M to $4.90M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, The University of Texas at Austin (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$17,377,540
Men's basketball expenses	$22,209,288
Athletics department expenses	$277,413,781
Athletics department revenue	$343,106,827

Coverage and exclusions

33 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$17,377,540	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$22,209,288	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	3
3 or more days	31

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology