Siena

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Siena, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Gavin Doty	91.7%	+2.7range +1.6 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+8.8range +7.8 to +9.7Sufficient evidence	$51KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $145KLoading
Justice Shoats	89.4%	+2.0range +1.2 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+8.0range +7.2 to +8.8Sufficient evidence	$40KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $110KLoading
Brendan Coyle	75.1%	+1.9range +0.6 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+6.6range +5.7 to +7.3Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $96KLoading
Francis Folefac	70.2%	+2.0range +1.0 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+6.2range +5.5 to +6.9Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $94KLoading
Antonio Chandler	45.9%	+2.2range +0.9 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.5 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $67KLoading
Christian Jones	41.8%	-1.6range -2.9 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +1.9 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $22KLoading
Riley Mulvey	34.9%	+2.2range +1.2 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.7 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $55KLoading
Isaiah Henderson	27.8%	-1.8range -2.9 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.3 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $16KLoading
Tasman Goodrick	14.2%	+3.0range +2.1 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.2 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $28KLoading
Owen Schlager	3.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Marcus Jackson	2.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Tajae Jones	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Chris Torres	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Mosi Clayton	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Cooper Nadler	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Danny Murray	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $235K; 80% Range $86K to $635K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $215K to $300K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 16; 7 floor only

The widest scenario range, $110K to $795K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Gavin Doty	91.7%	$51K	$18K to $145K	21.1%	$47K to $65K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Justice Shoats	89.4%	$40K	$14K to $110K	17.4%	$36K to $51K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brendan Coyle	75.1%	$32K	$10K to $96K	14.6%	$29K to $41K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Francis Folefac	70.2%	$32K	$10K to $94K	13.9%	$29K to $41K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Antonio Chandler	45.9%	$22K	$7K to $67K	9.6%	$20K to $28K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian Jones	41.8%	$4K	$1K to $22K	2.3%	$4K to $6K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Riley Mulvey	34.9%	$18K	$6K to $55K	7.7%	$17K to $23K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Henderson	27.8%	$4K	$1K to $16K	1.7%	$3K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tasman Goodrick	14.2%	$10K	$3K to $28K	3.8%	$9K to $12K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Owen Schlager	3.8%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.6%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Marcus Jackson	2.5%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.6%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Tajae Jones	0.9%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.6%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Chris Torres	0.6%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.6%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Cooper Nadler	0.4%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.6%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Danny Murray	0.4%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.6%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Mosi Clayton	0.4%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.6%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$235K	$86K to $635K	100%	$215K to $300K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Siena College (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,052,910
Men's basketball expenses	$3,847,143
Athletics department expenses	$19,863,663
Athletics department revenue	$19,863,663

Coverage and exclusions

33 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$4,052,910	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,847,143	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
2 days	10
3 or more days	21

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology