Justice Shoats
Siena · 2025–26 · 35 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
1249:22 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 35
- Minutes per game
- 35:42
- Points per game
- 13.1
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 2.6 / 4.5
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 13.1 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Per 40 minutes | 14.6 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| Season totals | 457 | 92 | 156 | 49 | 10 | 90 | 69 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 188–406 | 46.3% | 11.6 | 13.0 |
| 2P | 174–365 | 47.7% | 10.4 | 11.7 |
| 3P | 14–41 | 34.1%† | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| FT | 67–99 | 67.7% | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | 50.8% | 10.1% | 24.4% | 1.73 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Siena · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $40K
- 80% range $14K to $110K
- Median share of team pool
- 17.4%
- team pool $235K, 80% range $86K to $635K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $36K to $51K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $1K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 89.4%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Siena: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Siena | $40Kspeculative | $14K to $110K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +2.0 | +1.2 to +2.8 | Sufficient evidence | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.0range +7.2 to +8.8 | 3,802 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Siena | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -0.0 | -1.2 to +1.1 | Sufficient evidence | +0.7 | -0.7 | +4.7range +3.8 to +5.7 | 3,346 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 39:11 | 35:42 | 15:52–40:00 | |
| Points | 14.0 | 13.1 | 0.0–26.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 45.2% | 47.5% | 0.0%–100.0% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Duke | L 65–71 | 40:00 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 36.4% |
| 2026-03-10 | Merrimack | W 64–54 | 38:15 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 40.0% |
| 2026-03-08 | Fairfield | W 76–61 | 39:47 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8-15 | 3-3 | 7-11 | 63.3% |
| 2026-03-07 | Mount St. Mary's | W 63–58 | 38:50 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5-13 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 42.3% |
| 2026-03-01 | Rider | W 76–61 | 39:05 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7-16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 43.8% |
| 2026-02-27 | Fairfield | L 58–72 | 39:38 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3-12 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 25.0% |
| 2026-02-22 | Saint Peter's | W 72–63 | 31:19 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 36.4% |
| 2026-02-20 | Merrimack | L 72–79 | 15:52 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-15 | Marist | W 67–63 | 40:00 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | Quinnipiac | L 62–74 | 34:46 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 37.5% |
| 2026-02-07 | Saint Peter's | L 65–70 | 37:22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1-9 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 16.7% |
| 2026-02-05 | Iona | W 79–72 | 39:56 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8-13 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 65.4% |
| 2026-02-01 | Canisius | W 78–63 | 39:50 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9-14 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 67.9% |
| 2026-01-30 | Niagara | W 82–79 | 39:44 | 25 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10-15 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 70.0% |
| 2026-01-22 | Marist | W 69–50 | 32:42 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 40.0% |
| 2026-01-19 | Fairfield | W 85–77 | 38:40 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 8-12 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 70.8% |
| 2026-01-17 | Manhattan | W 74–59 | 39:39 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7-18 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 44.4% |
| 2026-01-14 | Sacred Heart | L 80–86 | 39:59 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6-15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 46.7% |
| 2026-01-11 | Mount St. Mary's | W 67–50 | 39:47 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 72.7% |
| 2026-01-09 | Merrimack | L 59–63 | 35:18 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 62.5% |
| 2026-01-04 | Rider | W 74–65 | 38:00 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 40.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | Iona | L 72–75 | 40:00 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6-16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 37.5% |
| 2025-12-22 | Indiana | L 60–81 | 18:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-17 | Vermont | L 69–83 | 39:50 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6-17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 35.3% |
| 2025-12-07 | Canisius | W 74–52 | 33:41 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 44.4% |
| 2025-12-05 | Niagara | W 83–54 | 31:59 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7-17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 44.1% |
| 2025-11-30 | Maine | W 64–60 | 38:39 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-29 | American | W 59–55 | 33:49 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 55.6% |
| 2025-11-28 | Longwood | W 70–63 | 37:01 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 77.8% |
| 2025-11-24 | Holy Cross | W 73–69 | 35:43 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 11-16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 68.8% |
| 2025-11-21 | UAlbany | W 73–63 | 34:35 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 54.5% |
| 2025-11-17 | Colgate | L 69–72 | 32:34 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 28.6% |
| 2025-11-12 | St. Bonaventure | L 66–75 | 31:58 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 33.3% |
| 2025-11-07 | Brown | W 62–46 | 29:23 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 16.7% |
| 2025-11-03 | Bryant | W 82–66 | 32:56 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7-16 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 43.8% |