Rice

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Rice, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Jalen Smith	80.0%	-2.5range -3.5 to -1.4Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.7 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$25KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $165KLoading
Trae Broadnax	78.2%	+0.5range -0.7 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.9 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$175KspeculativeLoading	$52K to $485KLoading
Nick Anderson	74.2%	+0.3range -0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.5 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$145KspeculativeLoading	$26K to $420KLoading
Cam Carroll	58.5%	-0.6range -1.6 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.7 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$74KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $220KLoading
Jimmy Oladokun Jr.	44.1%	+0.7range -0.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.4 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$125KspeculativeLoading	$42K to $365KLoading
Eternity Eguagie	41.6%	-1.7range -2.5 to -0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.7 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $110KLoading
Stephen Giwa	37.2%	+0.7range -0.4 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +2.0 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$96KspeculativeLoading	$31K to $285KLoading
Andrew Akuchie	33.8%	+0.1range -1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.7 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$70KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $220KLoading
Bodey Howell	19.0%	-1.7range -2.9 to -0.6Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $57KLoading
Dallas Hobbs	12.4%	-2.0range -2.7 to -1.3Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $37KLoading
Jordan Williams	10.3%	-3.2range -4.6 to -2.0Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $28KLoading
Trey Patterson	9.6%	-2.0range -2.7 to -1.1Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $32KLoading
Evan Cochran	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $15KLoading
George Perkins	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $15KLoading
Presley Patterson	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $15KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $960K; 80% Range $415K to $2.15M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $770K to $1.05M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jalen Smith	80.0%	$25K	$4K to $165K	3.2%	$20K to $27K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trae Broadnax	78.2%	$175K	$52K to $485K	17.8%	$140K to $195K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nick Anderson	74.2%	$145K	$26K to $420K	15.8%	$120K to $160K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cam Carroll	58.5%	$74K	$7K to $220K	10.2%	$60K to $82K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jimmy Oladokun Jr.	44.1%	$125K	$42K to $365K	11.6%	$98K to $135K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Eternity Eguagie	41.6%	$26K	$4K to $110K	4.2%	$21K to $28K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Stephen Giwa	37.2%	$96K	$31K to $285K	9.3%	$76K to $105K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Andrew Akuchie	33.8%	$70K	$14K to $220K	7.5%	$56K to $77K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bodey Howell	19.0%	$16K	$4K to $57K	2.3%	$13K to $18K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dallas Hobbs	12.4%	$12K	$3K to $37K	1.2%	$9K to $13K	$6K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Williams	10.3%	$10K	$3K to $28K	1.0%	$8K to $11K	$6K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trey Patterson	9.6%	$11K	$3K to $32K	1.1%	$9K to $12K	$6K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Evan Cochran	0.5%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$5K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
George Perkins	0.3%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$5K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Presley Patterson	0.1%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$5K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$960K	$415K to $2.15M	100%	$770K to $1.05M	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Rice University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$5,021,145	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$5,021,145
Athletics department expenses	$70,408,131
Athletics department revenue	$70,408,131

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$5,021,145	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$5,021,145	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	1
3 or more days	25

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology