Jalen Smith

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Sufficient evidence

3,151 on-court possessions · 943.1 minutes · 29 games

Retrospective contributionβ

Measure	Estimate and range	Meaning
Net, per 100 possessions	-2.5range -3.5 to -1.4Sufficient evidence	Offense plus defense; positive is better.
Offense	-0.4range unavailableSufficient evidence	Association between this player being on court and team points per 100 possessions on offense, given teammates and opponents in the fit. It depends on role and context and is not the effect of adding the player. No separate range is published.
Defense	-2.1range unavailableSufficient evidence	Association between this player being on court and opponent points per 100 possessions, given teammates and opponents in the fit. It depends on role and context and is not the effect of adding the player. No separate range is published.
Per 40 over replacement	+4.7range +3.9 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	Retrospective difference in points per 40 minutes from the pooled low-minute replacement level; context-dependent.
Wins above replacement	+3.2range +2.7 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	Retrospective wins associated with this player's minutes over the accepted schedule, relative to the pooled replacement level. Not the wins a team would gain by swapping the player in or out.

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Offense and defense carry no published range, so they are shown as range unavailable and should not be read as precise.

Prior used

Prior mean -0.0 per 100 possessions at weight 77% of the estimate. The remainder comes from this player's lineup data.

Speculative compensation · 2025–26β

Rice · Mid and high major · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.

Speculative best guess: $25K; 80% range $4K to $165K
Median share of team pool: 3.2%; team pool $960K, 80% range $415K to $2.15M
Across scenarios Z1 to Z4: $20K to $27K; the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
Floor part: $6K; shared by every player with possessions
Possession share: 80.0%; Sufficient evidence

Point and 80% range on the team table's axis. Open circle: limited evidence or floor only.

Range driven by assumption, not data

Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.

Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.

Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks

Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.

Rice: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player

No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.

Earlier seasons

Earlier-fit net values: no range is published for these seasons; evidence is stated as the lowest level
Season	Split role	Net	Range	Evidence
2023	evaluation: examined, post hoc	-1.8	No range published for this season; treat as imprecise	Insufficient evidence
2024	evaluation: examined, post hoc	-1.4	No range published for this season; treat as imprecise	Insufficient evidence

Earlier-fit values carry no published range and no evidence record, so each is labeled with the lowest evidence level and its split role. Model-implied, experimental. NIL methodology

Program-level revenue allocation (frozen model)β

No program-level revenue allocation is shown from the frozen valuation model. Elasticity cross-check failed: the wins-to-revenue elasticity prior and the cross-section implied elasticity differ by more than the declared factor, and no gate validates the prior The speculative compensation estimate above is a separate model with its own assumptions and basis.