Portland St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Portland St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Jaylin Henderson	94.9%	+1.9range +1.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+7.2range +6.5 to +7.7Sufficient evidence	$38KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $105KLoading
Terri Miller Jr.	79.1%	+4.7range +3.5 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	+7.5range +6.7 to +8.1Sufficient evidence	$71KspeculativeLoading	$23K to $215KLoading
Tre-Vaughn Minott	73.8%	+1.0range -0.2 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+5.2range +4.6 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $73KLoading
Keyon Kensie Jr.	72.1%	+1.4range +0.4 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+5.3range +4.7 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $77KLoading
Kelcy Phipps	42.1%	-0.5range -1.4 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.2 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $28KLoading
Alex Dupre	38.9%	-1.3range -2.3 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.8 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $21KLoading
Isaiah Williams	30.3%	-0.5range -1.5 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $21KLoading
Sebastian Tidor	27.0%	+0.7range -0.4 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $24KLoading
Brycen Long	20.8%	+0.3range -1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.1 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $19KLoading
Mozae Downing-Rivers	6.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Charles Chukwu	5.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Brayden Barron	4.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Colt Ness	2.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Samuel Stewart IV	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Kean Webb	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $215K; 80% Range $82K to $570K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $210K to $225K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 6 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jaylin Henderson	94.9%	$38K	$13K to $105K	19.1%	$37K to $40K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Terri Miller Jr.	79.1%	$71K	$23K to $215K	30.5%	$69K to $74K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tre-Vaughn Minott	73.8%	$23K	$5K to $73K	12.8%	$23K to $24K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Keyon Kensie Jr.	72.1%	$26K	$7K to $77K	13.5%	$25K to $27K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kelcy Phipps	42.1%	$7K	$1K to $28K	4.6%	$7K to $8K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alex Dupre	38.9%	$5K	$1K to $21K	2.8%	$4K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Williams	30.3%	$6K	$1K to $21K	3.4%	$5K to $6K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sebastian Tidor	27.0%	$8K	$2K to $24K	4.5%	$8K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brycen Long	20.8%	$6K	$1K to $19K	3.3%	$5K to $6K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mozae Downing-Rivers	6.3%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Charles Chukwu	5.1%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Brayden Barron	4.9%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Colt Ness	2.5%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Samuel Stewart IV	1.0%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Kean Webb	0.9%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$215K	$82K to $570K	100%	$210K to $225K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Portland State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,172,702	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,172,702
Athletics department expenses	$19,186,971
Athletics department revenue	$19,186,971

Coverage and exclusions

27 of 28 games passed lineup acceptance (96%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 28 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,172,702	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,172,702	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	10
3 or more days	17

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology