IUPUI

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for IUPUI, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Finley Woodward	77.8%	+0.3range -0.7 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.7 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$31KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $110KLoading
Kyler D'Augustino	77.7%	-1.0range -1.8 to +0.0Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.2 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $58KLoading
Maguire Mitchell	66.6%	-0.4range -1.8 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.8 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $65KLoading
Micah Davis	62.7%	-1.5range -3.2 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.2 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $44KLoading
Jaxon Edwards	54.0%	-2.6range -3.9 to -1.2Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.7 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $25KLoading
Kameron Tinsley	39.0%	-1.2range -2.3 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.6 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $29KLoading
Aiden Miller	34.1%	-0.3range -1.5 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $37KLoading
Matt Compas	33.0%	-2.1range -3.3 to -0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $18KLoading
Reece Hagy	26.9%	+2.5range +1.6 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.7 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$31KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $155KLoading
JP Dragas	17.0%	-1.6range -2.5 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Gabe Stewart	4.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Lav Cvetkovic'	4.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Ajay Holubar	1.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Corey Boston	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Garrett Sever	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $170K; 80% Range $65K to $485K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $155K to $240K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 5 floor only

The widest scenario range, $92K to $630K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Finley Woodward	77.8%	$31K	$6K to $110K	18.2%	$28K to $44K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kyler D'Augustino	77.7%	$14K	$1K to $58K	12.5%	$12K to $20K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Maguire Mitchell	66.6%	$17K	$1K to $65K	12.5%	$15K to $24K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Micah Davis	62.7%	$9K	$1K to $44K	7.8%	$8K to $12K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaxon Edwards	54.0%	$4K	$1K to $25K	3.4%	$4K to $6K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kameron Tinsley	39.0%	$7K	$1K to $29K	6.0%	$6K to $10K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aiden Miller	34.1%	$10K	$1K to $37K	6.8%	$9K to $13K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matt Compas	33.0%	$4K	$1K to $18K	3.2%	$3K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Reece Hagy	26.9%	$31K	$8K to $155K	14.3%	$26K to $41K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
JP Dragas	17.0%	$3K	$1K to $12K	2.5%	$3K to $4K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Gabe Stewart	4.7%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.7%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Lav Cvetkovic'	4.0%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.7%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Ajay Holubar	1.5%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.7%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Corey Boston	0.9%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.7%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Garrett Sever	0.1%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.7%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$170K	$65K to $485K	100%	$155K to $240K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Indiana University-Indianapolis (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,606,361	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,606,361
Athletics department expenses	$11,519,345
Athletics department revenue	$11,519,345

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (93%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,606,361	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,606,361	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	7
3 or more days	22

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology