Indiana

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Indiana, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Tucker DeVries	84.8%	+5.6range +3.8 to +7.0Sufficient evidence	+7.6range +6.7 to +8.3Sufficient evidence	$1.00MspeculativeLoading	$625K to $1.85MLoading
Lamar Wilkerson	84.3%	+2.9range +2.0 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	+6.2range +5.6 to +6.8Sufficient evidence	$585KspeculativeLoading	$375K to $875KLoading
Conor Enright	74.9%	+2.1range +0.6 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+5.2range +4.4 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	$410KspeculativeLoading	$160K to $640KLoading
Nick Dorn	56.2%	-0.2range -1.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.6 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$165KspeculativeLoading	$26K to $355KLoading
Sam Alexis	51.2%	+2.2range +0.9 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.1 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$310KspeculativeLoading	$155K to $475KLoading
Reed Bailey	49.0%	+2.4range +1.1 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.0 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$305KspeculativeLoading	$160K to $480KLoading
Tayton Conerway	46.9%	+3.4range +1.7 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.1 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$380KspeculativeLoading	$220K to $615KLoading
Trent Sisley	28.5%	+0.9range -0.4 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.5 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$135KspeculativeLoading	$38K to $230KLoading
Jasai Miles	18.3%	-2.0range -3.0 to -0.8Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$46KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $110KLoading
Aleksa Ristic	2.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$26Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Ian Stephens	1.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$26Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Drew Snively	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$26Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Tryce Grensing	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$26Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Tucker DeVries	84.8%	$1.00M	$625K to $1.85M	27.5%	$1.00M in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Lamar Wilkerson	84.3%	$585K	$375K to $875K	16.7%	$585K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Conor Enright	74.9%	$410K	$160K to $640K	12.2%	$410K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Nick Dorn	56.2%	$165K	$26K to $355K	4.9%	$165K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sam Alexis	51.2%	$310K	$155K to $475K	9.2%	$310K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Reed Bailey	49.0%	$305K	$160K to $480K	8.9%	$305K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Tayton Conerway	46.9%	$380K	$220K to $615K	10.5%	$380K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Trent Sisley	28.5%	$135K	$38K to $230K	4.0%	$135K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Jasai Miles	18.3%	$46K	$19K to $110K	1.2%	$46K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Aleksa Ristic	2.2%	$26K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$26K in all four	$26K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Ian Stephens	1.4%	$26K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$26K in all four	$26K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Drew Snively	1.1%	$26K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$26K in all four	$26K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Tryce Grensing	1.1%	$26K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$26K in all four	$26K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.60M to $4.95M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Indiana University-Bloomington (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$52,276,379
Men's basketball expenses	$31,818,423
Athletics department expenses	$159,331,697
Athletics department revenue	$182,095,778

Coverage and exclusions

30 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$52,276,379	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$31,818,423	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	2
3 or more days	29

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology