Drake

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Drake, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Jalen Quinn	84.4%	-1.1range -2.6 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +3.9 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	$41KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $145KLoading
Andrew Alia	76.1%	-0.0range -1.4 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.1 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$65KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $190KLoading
Eli Shetlar	69.0%	+1.3range -0.3 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.2 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$110KspeculativeLoading	$34K to $315KLoading
Okku Federiko	58.6%	-0.4range -2.1 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +2.9 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$45KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $135KLoading
Owen Larson	56.6%	-1.1range -2.5 to +0.3Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.6 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$29KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $105KLoading
Jaehshon Thomas	50.5%	-0.5range -1.9 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.6 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$38KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $115KLoading
Griffen Goodbary	29.7%	+1.4range +0.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +1.9 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	$56KspeculativeLoading	$20K to $170KLoading
Isaiah Carr	27.0%	+1.7range +0.3 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.8 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $175KLoading
Braden Appelhans	24.2%	+0.4range -1.1 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$31KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $88KLoading
Wilguens Jr. Exacte	23.9%	+1.2range +0.2 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.6 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$44KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $120KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $595K; 80% Range $265K to $1.35M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $560K to $715K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 10

The widest scenario range, $315K to $1.60M, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jalen Quinn	84.4%	$41K	$4K to $145K	9.5%	$38K to $49K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Andrew Alia	76.1%	$65K	$8K to $190K	13.3%	$61K to $77K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Eli Shetlar	69.0%	$110K	$34K to $315K	17.2%	$100K to $130K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Okku Federiko	58.6%	$45K	$6K to $135K	9.4%	$42K to $53K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Owen Larson	56.6%	$29K	$4K to $105K	6.7%	$28K to $35K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaehshon Thomas	50.5%	$38K	$5K to $115K	8.1%	$35K to $44K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Griffen Goodbary	29.7%	$56K	$20K to $170K	8.5%	$52K to $66K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Carr	27.0%	$55K	$19K to $175K	8.2%	$51K to $65K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Braden Appelhans	24.2%	$31K	$8K to $88K	5.4%	$29K to $36K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Wilguens Jr. Exacte	23.9%	$44K	$17K to $120K	6.8%	$41K to $52K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$595K	$265K to $1.35M	100%	$560K to $715K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Drake University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,275,182	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$4,275,182
Athletics department expenses	$21,320,822
Athletics department revenue	$21,320,822

Coverage and exclusions

32 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$4,275,182	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$4,275,182	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
3 or more days	28

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology