CS Sacramento

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for CS Sacramento, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Prophet Johnson	87.7%	-0.8range -1.8 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.3 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$30KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $115KLoading
Mark Lavrenov	69.0%	-0.7range -1.9 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.6 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$27KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $110KLoading
Jahni Summers	66.7%	-2.3range -3.6 to -1.1Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $54KLoading
Mikey Williams	58.0%	-1.5range -2.3 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.1 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $62KLoading
Arman Madi	55.6%	+0.6range -0.4 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.5 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$56KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $210KLoading
Shaqir O'Neal	49.5%	-0.9range -2.1 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.9 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $74KLoading
Taj Glover	32.0%	+0.6range -0.7 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.5 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $145KLoading
Jayden Teat	31.2%	-1.5range -2.6 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $36KLoading
Romari Robinson	19.1%	-0.5range -1.6 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $39KLoading
Brandon Gardner	18.6%	-0.4range -1.0 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $36KLoading
Jeremiah Cherry	10.3%	-0.2range -0.7 to +0.3Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $24KLoading
Jeremiah Nyarko	1.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Isaiah Bronson	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $300K; 80% Range $105K to $785K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $230K to $325K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Prophet Johnson	87.7%	$30K	$2K to $115K	15.0%	$23K to $33K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mark Lavrenov	69.0%	$27K	$2K to $110K	12.2%	$21K to $29K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jahni Summers	66.7%	$8K	$1K to $54K	4.5%	$7K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mikey Williams	58.0%	$13K	$1K to $62K	7.7%	$10K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Arman Madi	55.6%	$56K	$14K to $210K	16.1%	$43K to $61K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Shaqir O'Neal	49.5%	$18K	$2K to $74K	8.5%	$14K to $20K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Taj Glover	32.0%	$32K	$7K to $145K	9.4%	$25K to $36K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jayden Teat	31.2%	$8K	$1K to $36K	4.3%	$7K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Romari Robinson	19.1%	$11K	$2K to $39K	4.2%	$8K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brandon Gardner	18.6%	$11K	$2K to $36K	4.2%	$8K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jeremiah Cherry	10.3%	$8K	$2K to $24K	2.8%	$6K to $9K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jeremiah Nyarko	1.5%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Bronson	0.7%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$300K	$105K to $785K	100%	$230K to $325K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, California State University-Sacramento (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,265,832	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,265,832
Athletics department expenses	$46,274,655
Athletics department revenue	$46,274,655

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 28 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,265,832	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,265,832	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched through an NCES IPEDS institution alias, with state and home-venue city agreeing.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	12
3 or more days	15

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	9

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology