Connecticut

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Connecticut, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Alex Karaban	85.3%	+5.7range +4.6 to +6.8Sufficient evidence	+9.8range +8.9 to +10.7Sufficient evidence	$975KspeculativeLoading	$510K to $1.75MLoading
Silas Demary Jr.	70.2%	+5.2range +3.8 to +6.5Sufficient evidence	+7.6range +6.8 to +8.4Sufficient evidence	$730KspeculativeLoading	$375K to $1.35MLoading
Solo Ball	67.0%	+3.2range +1.9 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	+6.2range +5.3 to +6.9Sufficient evidence	$460KspeculativeLoading	$190K to $890KLoading
Tarris Reed Jr.	60.8%	+6.2range +4.7 to +7.5Sufficient evidence	+7.0range +6.3 to +7.6Sufficient evidence	$765KspeculativeLoading	$395K to $1.40MLoading
Braylon Mullins	59.4%	+3.1range +2.2 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.8 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	$405KspeculativeLoading	$175K to $765KLoading
Jayden Ross	40.1%	+4.4range +3.0 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.4 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$370KspeculativeLoading	$175K to $680KLoading
Malachi Smith	39.0%	+3.7range +2.5 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.2 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$310KspeculativeLoading	$150K to $585KLoading
Eric Reibe	32.7%	+1.6range +0.6 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.2 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$165KspeculativeLoading	$57K to $355KLoading
Jaylin Stewart	32.7%	+2.2range +0.9 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.2 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$185KspeculativeLoading	$69K to $380KLoading
Dwayne Koroma	6.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$31Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $62KLoading
Alec Millender	3.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$31Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $62KLoading
Jacob Furphy	2.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$31Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $62KLoading
Uroš Paunović	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$31Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $62KLoading
Rrezon Elezaj	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$31Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $62KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $4.60M; 80% Range $2.55M to $8.05M
Tier: Big East and Gonzaga; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $4.00M to $4.95M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 5 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Alex Karaban	85.3%	$975K	$510K to $1.75M	20.3%	$840K to $1.05M	$31K	Sufficient evidence
Silas Demary Jr.	70.2%	$730K	$375K to $1.35M	15.5%	$630K to $785K	$31K	Sufficient evidence
Solo Ball	67.0%	$460K	$190K to $890K	10.9%	$400K to $495K	$31K	Sufficient evidence
Tarris Reed Jr.	60.8%	$765K	$395K to $1.40M	15.8%	$665K to $820K	$31K	Sufficient evidence
Braylon Mullins	59.4%	$405K	$175K to $765K	9.4%	$345K to $430K	$31K	Sufficient evidence
Jayden Ross	40.1%	$370K	$175K to $680K	8.2%	$325K to $400K	$31K	Sufficient evidence
Malachi Smith	39.0%	$310K	$150K to $585K	7.1%	$270K to $335K	$31K	Sufficient evidence
Eric Reibe	32.7%	$165K	$57K to $355K	4.0%	$145K to $175K	$31K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaylin Stewart	32.7%	$185K	$69K to $380K	4.4%	$160K to $200K	$31K	Sufficient evidence
Dwayne Koroma	6.2%	$31K	$15K to $62K	0.7%	$27K to $34K	$31K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Alec Millender	3.7%	$31K	$15K to $62K	0.7%	$27K to $34K	$31K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jacob Furphy	2.1%	$31K	$15K to $62K	0.7%	$27K to $34K	$31K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Uroš Paunović	0.6%	$31K	$15K to $62K	0.7%	$27K to $34K	$31K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Rrezon Elezaj	0.2%	$31K	$15K to $62K	0.7%	$27K to $34K	$31K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$4.60M	$2.55M to $8.05M	100%	$4.00M to $4.95M	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Connecticut (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$20,175,328	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$20,175,328
Athletics department expenses	$97,050,998
Athletics department revenue	$97,050,998

Coverage and exclusions

36 of 40 games passed lineup acceptance (90%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

4 of 40 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$20,175,328	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$20,175,328	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	3
3 or more days	34

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology