California

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for California, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Dai Dai Ames	79.7%	+1.6range +0.4 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.4 to +6.8Sufficient evidence	$485KspeculativeLoading	$215K to $760KLoading
John Camden	75.6%	+3.9range +2.6 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	+6.9range +6.2 to +7.7Sufficient evidence	$825KspeculativeLoading	$520K to $1.60MLoading
Justin Pippen	71.8%	+2.1range +0.4 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+5.7range +4.8 to +6.5Sufficient evidence	$495KspeculativeLoading	$230K to $830KLoading
Chris Bell	70.3%	+0.9range -0.5 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.2 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$350KspeculativeLoading	$80K to $580KLoading
Lee Dort	46.9%	+2.0range +0.8 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.2 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$330KspeculativeLoading	$185K to $520KLoading
Milos Ilic	42.4%	+1.6range +0.2 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.7 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$270KspeculativeLoading	$97K to $450KLoading
Semetri (TT) Carr	37.5%	+2.5range +1.0 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.7 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$295KspeculativeLoading	$165K to $495KLoading
DeJuan Campbell	24.6%	-1.3range -2.8 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.1 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$68KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $155KLoading
Nolan Dorsey	24.2%	-0.3range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$88KspeculativeLoading	$21K to $170KLoading
Mantas Kocanas	10.7%	-2.3range -3.2 to -1.5Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence	$34KspeculativeLoading	$15K to $71KLoading
Rytis Petraitis	9.2%	+2.6range +1.6 to +3.6Limited evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.8Limited evidence	$91KspeculativeLoading	$58K to $150KLoading
Sammie Yeanay	3.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$22Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$12K to $35KLoading
Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut	3.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$22Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$12K to $35KLoading
BJ Fisher	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$22Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$12K to $35KLoading
Stephon Marbury II	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$22Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$12K to $35KLoading
Luke Butler	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$22Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$12K to $35KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 16; 5 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Dai Dai Ames	79.7%	$485K	$215K to $760K	14.2%	$485K in all four	$22K	Sufficient evidence
John Camden	75.6%	$825K	$520K to $1.60M	22.4%	$825K in all four	$22K	Sufficient evidence
Justin Pippen	71.8%	$495K	$230K to $830K	14.1%	$495K in all four	$22K	Sufficient evidence
Chris Bell	70.3%	$350K	$80K to $580K	10.5%	$350K in all four	$22K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Lee Dort	46.9%	$330K	$185K to $520K	9.4%	$330K in all four	$22K	Sufficient evidence
Milos Ilic	42.4%	$270K	$97K to $450K	7.8%	$270K in all four	$22K	Sufficient evidence
Semetri (TT) Carr	37.5%	$295K	$165K to $495K	8.2%	$295K in all four	$22K	Sufficient evidence
DeJuan Campbell	24.6%	$68K	$17K to $155K	2.0%	$68K in all four	$22K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nolan Dorsey	24.2%	$88K	$21K to $170K	2.6%	$88K in all four	$22K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mantas Kocanas	10.7%	$34K	$15K to $71K	0.9%	$34K in all four	$22K	Limited evidence
Rytis Petraitis	9.2%	$91K	$58K to $150K	2.5%	$91K in all four	$22K	Limited evidence
Sammie Yeanay	3.1%	$22K	$12K to $35K	0.6%	$22K in all four	$22K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut	3.0%	$22K	$12K to $35K	0.6%	$22K in all four	$22K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
BJ Fisher	0.5%	$22K	$12K to $35K	0.6%	$22K in all four	$22K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Stephon Marbury II	0.3%	$22K	$12K to $35K	0.6%	$22K in all four	$22K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Luke Butler	0.3%	$22K	$12K to $35K	0.6%	$22K in all four	$22K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.60M to $4.95M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of California-Berkeley (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$13,249,051
Men's basketball expenses	$14,101,936
Athletics department expenses	$173,116,318
Athletics department revenue	$173,116,318

Coverage and exclusions

32 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$13,249,051	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$14,101,936	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	1
3 or more days	31

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology