Cayden Ward
Only corroborated player-season records; not complete career coverage.
Observed career performance
1255:58 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 51
- Minutes per game
- 24:38
- Points per game
- 11.5
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 5.4 / 1.3
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Per 40 minutes | 18.8 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Season totals | 589 | 276 | 68 | 36 | 8 | 123 | 134 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 193–446 | 43.3% | 8.7 | 14.2 |
| 2P | 122–225 | 54.2% | 4.4 | 7.2 |
| 3P | 71–221 | 32.1% | 4.3 | 7.0 |
| FT | 132–177 | 74.6% | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.2% | 56.2% | 49.6% | 39.7% | 0.55 |
Combined corroborated seasons only; not complete career coverage. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Linked seasons
| Season | Team | G | MPG | Pts | Reb | Ast | Pts/40 | 3P% | FT% | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Cayden Ward | Cal Poly | 20 | 16:44 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 17.5 | 35.6% | 73.0% | 52.4% |
| 2026 Cayden Ward | Cal Poly | 31 | 29:43 | 14.3 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 19.2 | 30.9% | 75.0% | 57.6% |
Career identity corroborated by repeated game, team and individual-statistic matches. Unlinked seasons are excluded.
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Cal Poly · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $7K
- 80% range $1K to $48K
- Median share of team pool
- 2.9%
- team pool $300K, 80% range $110K to $790K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $6K to $8K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $2K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 73.8%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Cal Poly: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Cal Poly | $7Kspeculative | $1K to $48K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | -2.6 | -4.0 to -1.1 | Sufficient evidence | +0.6 | -3.2 | +3.4range +2.6 to +4.1 | 3,178 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Cal Poly | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -1.8 | -2.6 to -0.7 | Sufficient evidence | +0.9 | -2.7 | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.4 | 1,199 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology