AJ Bates
Louisiana Tech · 2025–26 · 31 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
1055:20 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 31
- Minutes per game
- 34:03
- Points per game
- 12.3
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 2.7 / 5.8
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 12.3 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Per 40 minutes | 14.4 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Season totals | 381 | 83 | 179 | 37 | 2 | 75 | 65 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 131–360 | 36.4% | 11.6 | 13.6 |
| 2P | 99–239 | 41.4% | 7.7 | 9.1 |
| 3P | 32–121 | 26.4% | 3.9 | 4.6 |
| FT | 87–111 | 78.4% | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.8% | 46.6% | 33.6% | 30.8% | 2.39 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Louisiana Tech · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $54K
- 80% range $17K to $160K
- Median share of team pool
- 19.0%
- team pool $275K, 80% range $100K to $725K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $49K to $56K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $2K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 84.5%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Louisiana Tech: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Louisiana Tech | $54Kspeculative | $17K to $160K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +1.4 | +0.3 to +2.3 | Sufficient evidence | +1.3 | +0.1 | +6.4range +5.7 to +6.9 | 3,427 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Louisiana Tech | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | +1.1 | +0.2 to +2.1 | Sufficient evidence | +0.9 | +0.2 | +2.4range +2.0 to +2.8 | 1,456 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 37:59 | 34:03 | 11:04–40:00 | |
| Points | 21.0 | 12.3 | 0.0–34.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 48.5% | 37.2% | 0.0%–85.7% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Kennesaw St. | L 60–71 | 39:59 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3-14 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 21.4% |
| 2026-03-13 | Missouri St. | W 69–66 | 40:00 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10-21 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | Middle Tenn. | W 80–69 | 39:52 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8-21 | 3-6 | 10-13 | 45.2% |
| 2026-03-07 | Delaware | W 81–38 | 30:06 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 56.3% |
| 2026-03-05 | Liberty | W 76–71 | 39:56 | 34 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-23 | 6-11 | 2-2 | 69.6% |
| 2026-02-28 | FIU | L 76–84 | 38:52 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0-8 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | Missouri St. | W 72–70 | 37:41 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-21 | Kennesaw St. | L 55–58 | 40:00 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4-13 | 0-5 | 4-5 | 30.8% |
| 2026-02-18 | Jacksonville St. | W 77–71 | 38:39 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 45.5% |
| 2026-02-14 | FIU | L 64–77 | 38:42 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 46.2% |
| 2026-02-12 | Missouri St. | W 79–78 | 38:15 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2-12 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 16.7% |
| 2026-02-07 | Sam Houston | W 87–78 | 28:00 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5-9 | 0-3 | 11-13 | 55.6% |
| 2026-02-04 | New Mexico St. | L 63–72 | 31:43 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 12.5% |
| 2026-01-31 | Sam Houston | L 67–83 | 38:16 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4-17 | 0-4 | 2-3 | 23.5% |
| 2026-01-28 | UTEP | W 69–59 | 37:57 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 30.0% |
| 2026-01-23 | Kennesaw St. | W 82–76 | 39:19 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3-12 | 1-4 | 3-6 | 29.2% |
| 2026-01-17 | Jacksonville St. | L 60–64 | 22:47 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 25.0% |
| 2026-01-14 | Middle Tenn. | W 59–58 | 33:06 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 41.7% |
| 2026-01-10 | Delaware | W 70–68 | 29:38 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 40.9% |
| 2026-01-08 | Liberty | L 56–72 | 25:57 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3-13 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 30.8% |
| 2026-01-04 | Western Ky. | L 61–66 | 40:00 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4-11 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | Middle Tenn. | L 51–88 | 27:39 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 37.5% |
| 2025-12-29 | UTEP | W 75–63 | 39:34 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 7-10 | 21.4% |
| 2025-12-17 | Tulane | L 53–61 | 34:44 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3-11 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 36.4% |
| 2025-12-13 | Louisiana | W 65–44 | 39:47 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7-13 | 0-2 | 9-9 | 53.8% |
| 2025-12-03 | Ga. Southern | L 69–77 | 28:02 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-29 | Alcorn | W 83–58 | 32:00 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10-14 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 85.7% |
| 2025-11-26 | Indiana St. | W 75–73 | 29:10 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7-13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 61.5% |
| 2025-11-19 | Indiana St. | L 51–60 | 11:04 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-15 | Jackson St. | W 68–51 | 35:07 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6-16 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 40.6% |
| 2025-11-04 | Nevada | L 50–77 | 29:28 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 44.4% |