Utah Tech

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Utah Tech, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Noah Bolanga	82.5%	-0.4range -1.6 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.1 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $73KLoading
Chance Trujillo	81.4%	+0.6range -0.3 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+5.2range +4.6 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	$35KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $105KLoading
Ethan Potter	78.9%	+1.9range +1.2 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+5.6range +5.2 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	$60KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $190KLoading
Jusaun Holt	77.6%	-2.1range -3.2 to -0.8Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.1 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $39KLoading
Tanner Davis	62.8%	-0.4range -1.4 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.2 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $54KLoading
Britton Berrett	57.2%	+0.7range -0.6 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.3 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $77KLoading
Samuel Ariyibi	23.5%	-1.6range -2.8 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $16KLoading
Madiba Owona	22.7%	-0.2range -0.7 to +0.3Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.3 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $21KLoading
Dario Domingos	10.9%	+0.1range -0.7 to +0.7Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $14KLoading
Boston Harker	1.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Dallin Grant	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Preston Vandermyde	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $210K; 80% Range $77K to $555K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $210K in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Noah Bolanga	82.5%	$21K	$2K to $73K	13.2%	$20K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chance Trujillo	81.4%	$35K	$10K to $105K	17.0%	$35K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ethan Potter	78.9%	$60K	$19K to $190K	25.5%	$60K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jusaun Holt	77.6%	$7K	$1K to $39K	4.9%	$7K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tanner Davis	62.8%	$16K	$2K to $54K	10.2%	$16K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Britton Berrett	57.2%	$24K	$6K to $77K	12.2%	$24K to $25K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Samuel Ariyibi	23.5%	$4K	$1K to $16K	2.5%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Madiba Owona	22.7%	$7K	$2K to $21K	4.3%	$7K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dario Domingos	10.9%	$5K	$2K to $14K	2.7%	$5K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Boston Harker	1.3%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Dallin Grant	0.9%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Preston Vandermyde	0.3%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$210K	$77K to $555K	100%	$210K in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Utah Tech University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,909,142
Men's basketball expenses	$1,894,269
Athletics department expenses	$18,870,761
Athletics department revenue	$23,448,672

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (90%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$1,909,142	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$1,894,269	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	9
3 or more days	19

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology