Wake Forest

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Wake Forest, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Juke Harris	88.2%	+2.3range +1.2 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+7.4range +6.6 to +8.1Sufficient evidence	$785KspeculativeLoading	$500K to $1.30MLoading
Tre'Von Spillers	72.3%	+2.6range +1.2 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+6.3range +5.6 to +7.1Sufficient evidence	$705KspeculativeLoading	$440K to $1.30MLoading
Myles Colvin	66.7%	-0.6range -1.9 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.6 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$225KspeculativeLoading	$22K to $465KLoading
Omaha Biliew	50.6%	+1.1range -0.5 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.3 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$330KspeculativeLoading	$96K to $580KLoading
Cooper Schwieger	49.4%	-0.2range -1.5 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.9 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$210KspeculativeLoading	$27K to $385KLoading
Mekhi Mason	48.3%	+0.0range -1.5 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.9 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$225KspeculativeLoading	$30K to $415KLoading
Nate Calmese	44.7%	+1.9range +0.6 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.3 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$375KspeculativeLoading	$215K to $635KLoading
Sebastian Akins	37.7%	+0.2range -0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.4 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$185KspeculativeLoading	$35K to $320KLoading
Isaac Carr	20.5%	+0.1range -0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$110KspeculativeLoading	$31K to $185KLoading
Marqus Marion	16.5%	+2.1range +0.6 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$155KspeculativeLoading	$88K to $280KLoading
Jaylen Cross	4.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading
Will Underwood	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading
Vincent Ricchiuti	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading
Anson Beard Jr.	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading
Owen Kmety	0.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.55M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 5 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Juke Harris	88.2%	$785K	$500K to $1.30M	21.3%	$785K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
Tre'Von Spillers	72.3%	$705K	$440K to $1.30M	19.0%	$705K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
Myles Colvin	66.7%	$225K	$22K to $465K	6.8%	$225K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Omaha Biliew	50.6%	$330K	$96K to $580K	9.4%	$330K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cooper Schwieger	49.4%	$210K	$27K to $385K	6.4%	$210K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mekhi Mason	48.3%	$225K	$30K to $415K	6.8%	$225K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nate Calmese	44.7%	$375K	$215K to $635K	10.1%	$375K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
Sebastian Akins	37.7%	$185K	$35K to $320K	5.5%	$185K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaac Carr	20.5%	$110K	$31K to $185K	3.4%	$110K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
Marqus Marion	16.5%	$155K	$88K to $280K	4.3%	$155K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
Jaylen Cross	4.4%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Vincent Ricchiuti	0.2%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Will Underwood	0.2%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Anson Beard Jr.	0.2%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Owen Kmety	0.0%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.55M to $4.95M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Wake Forest University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$13,055,099	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$13,055,099
Athletics department expenses	$114,628,069
Athletics department revenue	$114,628,069

Coverage and exclusions

32 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$13,055,099	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$13,055,099	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
3 or more days	32

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology