W Michigan

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for W Michigan, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
EJ Ryans	68.1%	-0.8range -2.6 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.6 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $89KLoading
Jayden Brewer	65.4%	+1.0range -0.5 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.2 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$61KspeculativeLoading	$16K to $230KLoading
Max Burton	59.8%	-0.9range -2.0 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$19KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $74KLoading
Jalen Griffith	48.0%	-0.7range -1.7 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.1 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$19KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $66KLoading
Justice Williams	46.3%	+0.3range -0.4 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.3 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $110KLoading
Trey Lewis	43.4%	-1.5range -2.9 to -0.2Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $44KLoading
Brady Swartz	40.0%	-0.1range -1.1 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.9 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $78KLoading
Carson Vis	37.0%	-1.0range -2.3 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.5 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $48KLoading
Sharod Barnes	28.3%	-3.0range -4.0 to -2.1Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $21KLoading
Michael Sulaka	20.9%	-0.8range -1.7 to -0.0Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $28KLoading
Declan Peterson	19.5%	-0.4range -1.2 to +0.3Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $31KLoading
Hudson Ward	17.7%	+0.2range -0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $44KLoading
Junior Sileu	4.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Nicholas Errica	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $295K; 80% Range $105K to $770K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $235K to $320K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
EJ Ryans	68.1%	$23K	$2K to $89K	10.9%	$19K to $25K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jayden Brewer	65.4%	$61K	$16K to $230K	18.4%	$49K to $66K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Max Burton	59.8%	$19K	$2K to $74K	9.5%	$15K to $20K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jalen Griffith	48.0%	$19K	$2K to $66K	8.7%	$15K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Justice Williams	46.3%	$33K	$9K to $110K	10.6%	$26K to $35K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trey Lewis	43.4%	$10K	$1K to $44K	5.2%	$8K to $10K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brady Swartz	40.0%	$23K	$5K to $78K	8.7%	$19K to $25K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Carson Vis	37.0%	$11K	$1K to $48K	5.6%	$9K to $13K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sharod Barnes	28.3%	$4K	$1K to $21K	1.1%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Michael Sulaka	20.9%	$8K	$2K to $28K	3.7%	$6K to $8K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Declan Peterson	19.5%	$9K	$2K to $31K	4.0%	$7K to $10K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Hudson Ward	17.7%	$13K	$3K to $44K	4.5%	$11K to $15K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Junior Sileu	4.5%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Nicholas Errica	1.1%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$295K	$105K to $770K	100%	$235K to $320K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Western Michigan University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,375,653	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,375,653
Athletics department expenses	$43,722,663
Athletics department revenue	$43,722,663

Coverage and exclusions

27 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (93%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,375,653	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,375,653	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
3 or more days	28

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology