Justice Williams
Western Mich. · 2025–26 · 18 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
538:13 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 18
- Minutes per game
- 29:54
- Points per game
- 15.1
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 3.6 / 1.9
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 15.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Per 40 minutes | 20.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Season totals | 271 | 64 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 28 | 30 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 91–213 | 42.7% | 11.8 | 15.8 |
| 2P | 59–125 | 47.2% | 6.9 | 9.3 |
| 3P | 32–88 | 36.4% | 4.9 | 6.5 |
| FT | 57–67 | 85.1% | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.2% | 55.9% | 41.3% | 31.5% | 1.25 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
W Michigan · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $33K
- 80% range $9K to $110K
- Median share of team pool
- 10.6%
- team pool $295K, 80% range $105K to $770K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $26K to $35K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $2K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 46.3%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
W Michigan: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W Michigan | $33Kspeculative | $9K to $110K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +0.3 | -0.4 to +1.0 | Sufficient evidence | +1.2 | -0.9 | +2.6range +2.3 to +2.8 | 1,736 | Season detail | |
| 2024 | Robert Morris | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -3.2 | -4.3 to -2.3 | Sufficient evidence | -0.5 | -2.7 | +1.3range +0.8 to +1.8 | 2,738 | Season detail | |
| 2023 | LSU | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -1.8 | -2.9 to -0.8 | Sufficient evidence | -1.0 | -0.8 | +0.9range +0.6 to +1.2 | 975 | Season detail | |
| 2022 | LSU | None: no budget that season | — | development: in model selection | -1.6 | -2.6 to -0.6 | Sufficient evidence | -0.7 | -1.0 | Not computed for this season | 602 |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30:44 | 29:54 | 19:00–39:45 | |
| Points | 13.4 | 15.1 | 3.0–29.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 36.6% | 47.5% | 0.0%–96.2% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Kent St. | L 78–86 | 27:06 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 6-8 | 25.0% |
| 2026-03-03 | Ball St. | L 71–74 | 39:45 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8-17 | 2-8 | 4-5 | 52.9% |
| 2026-02-27 | Miami (OH) | L 67–69 | 29:29 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 66.7% |
| 2026-02-24 | Bowling Green | W 88–79 | 33:26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6-17 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 38.2% |
| 2026-02-21 | Central Mich. | L 70–83 | 23:53 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-17 | Akron | L 73–90 | 32:49 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8-15 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 63.3% |
| 2026-02-14 | Eastern Mich. | W 76–62 | 20:24 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 25.0% |
| 2026-02-11 | Toledo | L 79–90 | 37:15 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6-15 | 4-8 | 6-6 | 53.3% |
| 2026-02-07 | Texas St. | L 61–77 | 23:43 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 35.0% |
| 2026-02-03 | Ohio | L 71–91 | 23:14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | NIU | L 65–85 | 32:09 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-24 | Central Mich. | W 77–65 | 36:44 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4-14 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 42.9% |
| 2026-01-20 | Bowling Green | L 54–72 | 36:11 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5-14 | 2-9 | 6-6 | 42.9% |
| 2026-01-17 | Akron | L 89–104 | 32:33 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11-15 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 90.0% |
| 2026-01-13 | Massachusetts | L 82–85 | 28:52 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10-13 | 5-8 | 4-4 | 96.2% |
| 2026-01-10 | Eastern Mich. | W 79–62 | 19:00 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-06 | Miami (OH) | L 76–87 | 31:45 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 6-7 | 36.4% |
| 2025-12-30 | Toledo | L 79–84 | 29:55 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8-23 | 1-7 | 3-3 | 37.0% |