Virginia

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Virginia, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Dallin Hall	72.6%	+5.2range +3.8 to +6.4Sufficient evidence	+7.2range +6.4 to +7.9Sufficient evidence	$700KspeculativeLoading	$455K to $1.15MLoading
Thijs De Ridder	68.1%	+4.5range +3.1 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	+6.3range +5.4 to +7.0Sufficient evidence	$555KspeculativeLoading	$365K to $865KLoading
Sam Lewis	64.3%	+2.5range +0.6 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.2 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$345KspeculativeLoading	$140K to $550KLoading
Chance Mallory	58.0%	+3.1range +1.6 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +4.0 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$375KspeculativeLoading	$200K to $590KLoading
Malik Thomas	56.9%	+1.7range +0.5 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.6 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$255KspeculativeLoading	$89K to $420KLoading
Johann Grünloh	50.7%	+3.4range +2.0 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	+4.2range +3.6 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$340KspeculativeLoading	$195K to $525KLoading
Ugonna Onyenso	46.9%	+4.4range +2.9 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	+4.2range +3.6 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$400KspeculativeLoading	$250K to $625KLoading
Devin Tillis	37.8%	+2.5range +1.2 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.5 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$225KspeculativeLoading	$110K to $345KLoading
Jacari White	34.2%	+2.3range +1.2 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.2 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$190KspeculativeLoading	$95K to $300KLoading
Elijah Gertrude	5.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Martin Carrere	3.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Carter Lang	1.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Desmond Roberts	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Owen Odom	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.55M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 5 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Dallin Hall	72.6%	$700K	$455K to $1.15M	18.9%	$700K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Thijs De Ridder	68.1%	$555K	$365K to $865K	15.3%	$555K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Sam Lewis	64.3%	$345K	$140K to $550K	10.2%	$345K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Chance Mallory	58.0%	$375K	$200K to $590K	10.8%	$375K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Malik Thomas	56.9%	$255K	$89K to $420K	7.7%	$255K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Johann Grünloh	50.7%	$340K	$195K to $525K	9.7%	$340K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Ugonna Onyenso	46.9%	$400K	$250K to $625K	10.8%	$400K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Devin Tillis	37.8%	$225K	$110K to $345K	6.6%	$225K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Jacari White	34.2%	$190K	$95K to $300K	5.7%	$190K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Elijah Gertrude	5.0%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Martin Carrere	3.0%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Carter Lang	1.2%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Desmond Roberts	0.6%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Owen Odom	0.6%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.55M to $4.95M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Virginia-Main Campus (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$17,841,957
Men's basketball expenses	$16,646,407
Athletics department expenses	$150,622,194
Athletics department revenue	$150,622,194

Coverage and exclusions

26 of 36 games passed lineup acceptance (72%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

10 of 36 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$17,841,957	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$16,646,407	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	3
3 or more days	30

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology