UTEP

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for UTEP, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Kaseem Watson	80.7%	-0.0range -1.0 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.5 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$34KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $115KLoading
Jamal West Jr.	79.3%	-0.3range -1.2 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.3 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$31KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $98KLoading
KJ Thomas	72.5%	-0.5range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.9 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $86KLoading
Elijah Jones	71.1%	+1.4range +0.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.5 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$64KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $220KLoading
Caleb Blackwell	69.0%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.1 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$35KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $115KLoading
Trey Horton	31.5%	-0.8range -1.9 to +0.3Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.3 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $35KLoading
Cassius Brooks	31.5%	-3.3range -4.9 to -2.0Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $19KLoading
LA Hayes	25.0%	+0.3range -0.9 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $51KLoading
Mouhamed Mbaye	13.2%	+0.9range +0.1 to +1.5Limited evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.9Limited evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $37KLoading
Tyreese Watson	9.5%	-2.4range -3.0 to -2.0Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $10KLoading
C.J. Smith	6.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
David Tubek	5.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Bobby Montgomery Jr.	4.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Jordan Hernandez	1.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $275K; 80% Range $105K to $715K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $270K to $295K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Kaseem Watson	80.7%	$34K	$5K to $115K	14.8%	$33K to $36K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jamal West Jr.	79.3%	$31K	$3K to $98K	13.9%	$30K to $33K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
KJ Thomas	72.5%	$26K	$2K to $86K	12.1%	$25K to $27K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Elijah Jones	71.1%	$64K	$18K to $220K	20.6%	$62K to $68K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Caleb Blackwell	69.0%	$35K	$6K to $115K	14.0%	$34K to $37K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trey Horton	31.5%	$9K	$1K to $35K	4.7%	$9K to $10K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cassius Brooks	31.5%	$4K	$1K to $19K	1.1%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
LA Hayes	25.0%	$15K	$3K to $51K	5.6%	$14K to $15K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mouhamed Mbaye	13.2%	$11K	$3K to $37K	3.7%	$11K to $12K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyreese Watson	9.5%	$3K	$1K to $10K	1.0%	$3K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
C.J. Smith	6.0%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
David Tubek	5.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Bobby Montgomery Jr.	4.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Hernandez	1.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$275K	$105K to $715K	100%	$270K to $295K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, The University of Texas at El Paso (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$7,644,864
Men's basketball expenses	$3,747,767
Athletics department expenses	$32,413,794
Athletics department revenue	$32,413,794

Coverage and exclusions

26 of 28 games passed lineup acceptance (93%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 28 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$7,644,864	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,747,767	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	6
3 or more days	19

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology