UT Arlington

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for UT Arlington, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Marcell McCreary	74.9%	+1.4range +0.3 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+5.6range +4.9 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	$40KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $120KLoading
Raysean Seamster	74.5%	+1.1range -0.2 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.7 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	$34KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $100KLoading
Casmir Chavis	69.3%	+0.9range -0.1 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.3 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	$29KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $85KLoading
Bahsil Laster	46.8%	+1.7range +0.6 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.1 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $82KLoading
Marcus Rigsby Jr.	40.8%	-1.9range -3.0 to -0.7Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.8 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $23KLoading
Tyran Mason	40.8%	-0.5range -2.4 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $38KLoading
Cameron Jackson	39.1%	+0.5range -0.5 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.4 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $45KLoading
Jordan Lowery	36.7%	+0.1range -0.9 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $36KLoading
Miles Goodman	32.1%	-1.5range -2.5 to -0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.5 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $20KLoading
Amari Reed	25.6%	+2.0range +1.0 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.8 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $55KLoading
Jayden Smoot	19.4%	-0.5range -1.5 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $19KLoading
Alex Bossinakis	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $220K; 80% Range $82K to $590K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $210K to $245K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 1 floor only

The widest scenario range, $91K to $655K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Marcell McCreary	74.9%	$40K	$13K to $120K	17.5%	$38K to $45K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Raysean Seamster	74.5%	$34K	$10K to $100K	15.8%	$32K to $37K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Casmir Chavis	69.3%	$29K	$9K to $85K	14.0%	$28K to $32K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bahsil Laster	46.8%	$26K	$8K to $82K	11.4%	$25K to $29K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Marcus Rigsby Jr.	40.8%	$5K	$1K to $23K	2.8%	$5K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyran Mason	40.8%	$9K	$1K to $38K	5.7%	$9K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cameron Jackson	39.1%	$14K	$3K to $45K	7.4%	$13K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Lowery	36.7%	$11K	$2K to $36K	6.2%	$10K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Miles Goodman	32.1%	$5K	$1K to $20K	2.6%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Amari Reed	25.6%	$18K	$6K to $55K	7.4%	$17K to $20K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jayden Smoot	19.4%	$5K	$1K to $19K	3.2%	$5K to $6K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alex Bossinakis	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$220K	$82K to $590K	100%	$210K to $245K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, The University of Texas at Arlington (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,484,568	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,484,568
Athletics department expenses	$18,699,446
Athletics department revenue	$18,699,446

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (93%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,484,568	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,484,568	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	7
3 or more days	20

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	5
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology