UNC Wilmington

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for UNC Wilmington, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Nolan Hodge	82.5%	+0.6range -0.6 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+6.2range +5.2 to +7.1Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $71KLoading
Greedy Williams	77.3%	+3.7range +2.0 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	+7.7range +6.6 to +8.6Sufficient evidence	$53KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $155KLoading
Christian May	75.6%	+0.4range -0.7 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+5.5range +4.8 to +6.4Sufficient evidence	$19KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $65KLoading
Noah Ross	73.9%	+2.4range +1.1 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	+6.5range +5.6 to +7.3Sufficient evidence	$37KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $105KLoading
Patrick Wessler	68.8%	+4.2range +2.7 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	+7.0range +6.2 to +7.9Sufficient evidence	$59KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $175KLoading
Madison Durr	52.9%	+0.7range -0.9 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.3 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $55KLoading
Gavin Walsh	25.6%	+2.8range +1.6 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.9 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $45KLoading
Jahnathan Lamothe	21.6%	-1.1range -2.1 to -0.2Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $16KLoading
Makoi Mabor Makoi	19.4%	-1.4range -2.7 to -0.3Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $14KLoading
Makel Smith	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Grady Whitt	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
JoJo Fullwood	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $255K; 80% Range $93K to $675K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $245K to $265K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Nolan Hodge	82.5%	$22K	$4K to $71K	10.9%	$21K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Greedy Williams	77.3%	$53K	$19K to $155K	20.1%	$51K to $56K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian May	75.6%	$19K	$3K to $65K	9.6%	$18K to $20K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Noah Ross	73.9%	$37K	$12K to $105K	14.9%	$36K to $39K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Patrick Wessler	68.8%	$59K	$19K to $175K	21.2%	$57K to $61K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Madison Durr	52.9%	$16K	$3K to $55K	7.9%	$16K to $17K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Gavin Walsh	25.6%	$16K	$5K to $45K	6.1%	$15K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jahnathan Lamothe	21.6%	$4K	$1K to $16K	2.0%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Makoi Mabor Makoi	19.4%	$4K	$1K to $14K	1.7%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Makel Smith	1.0%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Grady Whitt	0.8%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
JoJo Fullwood	0.7%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$255K	$93K to $675K	100%	$245K to $265K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of North Carolina Wilmington (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,053,344	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,053,344
Athletics department expenses	$26,310,913
Athletics department revenue	$26,310,913

Coverage and exclusions

32 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,053,344	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,053,344	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	7
3 or more days	23

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology