UAB

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for UAB, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Chance Westry	76.3%	+3.3range +1.9 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	+6.6range +5.9 to +7.3Sufficient evidence	$190KspeculativeLoading	$77K to $480KLoading
Daniel Rivera	73.2%	+0.2range -0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.2 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$65KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $185KLoading
Evan Chatman	72.3%	+2.0range +0.9 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+5.7range +5.0 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	$120KspeculativeLoading	$48K to $290KLoading
Jacob Meyer	62.7%	-2.0range -3.4 to -0.2Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.5 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $98KLoading
Ahmad Robinson	49.7%	+1.6range +0.3 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.3 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$74KspeculativeLoading	$28K to $180KLoading
KyeRon Lindsay-Martin	48.8%	+1.4range +0.4 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.2 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$71KspeculativeLoading	$26K to $175KLoading
Salim London	46.5%	+1.6range +0.6 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.1 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$74KspeculativeLoading	$28K to $185KLoading
Dayjaun Anderson	37.2%	+1.6range +0.1 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.3 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$58KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $150KLoading
Quaran McPherson	21.2%	+0.6range -0.8 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$27KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $70KLoading
Ari Gooch	10.1%	+0.4range -0.3 to +1.1Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $37KLoading
Joao Das Chagas	1.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $15KLoading
Lance Carr	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $15KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $785K; 80% Range $355K to $1.75M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $760K to $795K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Chance Westry	76.3%	$190K	$77K to $480K	22.6%	$180K to $190K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Daniel Rivera	73.2%	$65K	$11K to $185K	10.0%	$63K to $66K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Evan Chatman	72.3%	$120K	$48K to $290K	15.4%	$115K to $120K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jacob Meyer	62.7%	$23K	$4K to $98K	3.7%	$22K to $23K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ahmad Robinson	49.7%	$74K	$28K to $180K	10.1%	$72K to $76K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
KyeRon Lindsay-Martin	48.8%	$71K	$26K to $175K	9.8%	$69K to $72K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Salim London	46.5%	$74K	$28K to $185K	9.7%	$72K to $76K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dayjaun Anderson	37.2%	$58K	$19K to $150K	7.8%	$56K to $59K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Quaran McPherson	21.2%	$27K	$7K to $70K	3.9%	$26K to $27K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ari Gooch	10.1%	$15K	$6K to $37K	2.1%	$15K in all four	$6K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joao Das Chagas	1.3%	$6K	$3K to $15K	0.8%	$6K in all four	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Lance Carr	0.8%	$6K	$3K to $15K	0.8%	$6K in all four	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$785K	$355K to $1.75M	100%	$760K to $795K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Alabama at Birmingham (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$5,349,479
Men's basketball expenses	$5,003,621
Athletics department expenses	$40,789,883
Athletics department revenue	$43,889,337

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$5,349,479	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$5,003,621	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
3 or more days	29

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology