TX Southern

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for TX Southern, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Zaire Hayes	63.5%	-2.4range -3.8 to -1.1Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +1.9 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $29KLoading
Troy Hupstead	60.8%	+0.2range -1.0 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.8 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$25KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $83KLoading
Bryce Roberts	57.6%	-0.2range -1.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $62KLoading
Alex Anderson	56.8%	+0.1range -1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.6 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $83KLoading
Jaylen Wysinger	53.6%	-1.9range -3.2 to -0.8Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +1.8 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $28KLoading
Duane Posey	44.9%	-2.1range -3.8 to -0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.4 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $23KLoading
Zytarious Mortle	42.5%	+0.3range -0.9 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +2.0 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $64KLoading
Jordan Gorecki	38.3%	+1.0range -0.4 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.9 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $88KLoading
Anthony Andrews	27.0%	-3.0range -4.6 to -1.5Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.7 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Josh Akpovwa	18.5%	-1.7range -3.0 to -0.8Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Cameron Patterson	10.4%	-0.4range -0.9 to +0.2Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Ahmed Nedal Abdelrahman	10.4%	-1.2range -2.1 to -0.3Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $9KLoading
Oumar Koureissi	9.6%	-4.4range -5.4 to -3.4Limited evidence	+0.3range +0.2 to +0.3Limited evidence	$2KspeculativeLoading	$0 to $5KLoading
Kolby Granger	4.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Jordan Hamilton	1.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $175K; 80% Range $65K to $465K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $165K to $200K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Zaire Hayes	63.5%	$5K	$1K to $29K	4.1%	$4K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Troy Hupstead	60.8%	$25K	$4K to $83K	14.4%	$24K to $28K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bryce Roberts	57.6%	$18K	$2K to $62K	11.8%	$17K to $20K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alex Anderson	56.8%	$23K	$4K to $83K	13.1%	$22K to $26K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaylen Wysinger	53.6%	$5K	$1K to $28K	5.1%	$5K to $6K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Duane Posey	44.9%	$4K	$1K to $23K	3.7%	$4K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zytarious Mortle	42.5%	$18K	$3K to $64K	10.1%	$17K to $21K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Gorecki	38.3%	$23K	$6K to $88K	11.7%	$22K to $26K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Anthony Andrews	27.0%	$3K	$1K to $12K	1.3%	$2K to $3K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Josh Akpovwa	18.5%	$3K	$1K to $12K	2.3%	$3K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cameron Patterson	10.4%	$4K	$1K to $12K	2.6%	$4K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ahmed Nedal Abdelrahman	10.4%	$3K	$1K to $9K	2.0%	$3K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Oumar Koureissi	9.6%	$2K	$0 to $5K	0.9%	$2K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kolby Granger	4.9%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Hamilton	1.2%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$175K	$65K to $465K	100%	$165K to $200K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Texas Southern University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,649,116	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$1,649,116
Athletics department expenses	$12,453,738
Athletics department revenue	$12,453,738

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 28 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$1,649,116	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$1,649,116	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	7
3 or more days	20

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology